一种基于电力大数据的用电需求景气指数构建方法

• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese
• Published: 07.01.2025
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; ELECTRIC DIGITAL DATA PROCESSING; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

本发明公开了一种基于电力大数据的用电需求景气指数构建方法，包括步骤：一、收集月度电量数据和月度平均气温数据；二、对月度电量数据进行筛选，剔除噪声数据；三、将剔除噪声数据后的月度电量数据转化为标准合成增速；四、采用主成分分析法挑选出有效的标准合成增速数据，作为预测模型自变量，并输入预先构建的预测模型中，预测模型的输出为最优预测电量增速；五、动态气温修正：建立月度平均气温数据与标准合成增速的非线性模型，并根据未来3期的平均气温数据，修正最优预测电量增速；六、预测电量增速结果校验；七、编制合成指数；八、输出用电需求景气指数。本发明的自适应能力更强，对基础数据要求低，无需进行异常值的判断与处理。 The invention discloses an electricity demand prosperity index construction method based on electric power big data. The method comprises the following steps: 1, collecting monthly electric quantity data and monthly average temperature data; 2, screening monthly electric quantity data, and removing noise data; 3, converting the monthly electric quantity data after the noise data is removed into a standard synthesis speed increase; 4, selecting effective standard synthesis speed increase data through a principal component analysis method and serving as independent variables of a prediction model, and inputting the independent variables into the pre-constructed prediction model, wherein the output of the prediction mod