一种雨养农用地面源污染排放量预测方法及系统

• Format: Patent
• Language: Chinese
• Published: 29.03.2024
• Subjects: CALCULATING; COMPUTING; COUNTING; DATA PROCESSING SYSTEMS OR METHODS, SPECIALLY ADAPTED FORADMINISTRATIVE, COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORYOR FORECASTING PURPOSES; PHYSICS; SYSTEMS OR METHODS SPECIALLY ADAPTED FOR ADMINISTRATIVE,COMMERCIAL, FINANCIAL, MANAGERIAL, SUPERVISORY OR FORECASTINGPURPOSES, NOT OTHERWISE PROVIDED FOR

本发明实施例提供一种雨养农用地面源污染排放量预测方法及系统，包括：收集在雨养农用地目标监测点处的历史产流相关数据；确定在未来预设时间段内各月份的产流相关预测值；确定雨养农用地的产流氮磷总量预测值，并将产流氮磷总量预测值作为雨养农用地的污染排放量。本发明实施例提供的污染排放量预测方法，在农田面源污染发生驱动因素与特征基础上，针对水量排放量和产流氮磷浓度，分别建立月份地表径流和地下淋溶排放量预测模型以及产流氮磷浓度预测模型，科学预测降雨影响的农用地田块尺度面源污染排放量，解决了仅受降雨量影响的农用地田块尺度面源污染排放量无法预测的难题，为农业面源污染防治提供了技术支持。 The embodiment of the invention provides a method and a system for predicting the source pollution discharge of a rain-fed agricultural land. The method comprises the following steps: collecting historical runoff production related data at a target monitoring point of the rain-fed agricultural land; determining a runoff production related prediction value of each month in a future preset time period; and determining a predicted value of the total amount of runoff nitrogen and phosphorus of the rain-fed agricultural land, and taking the predicted value of the total amount of runoff nitrogen andphosphorus as the pollution discharge amount of the rain-fed agricultural land. According to the pollution discharge prediction method pr