基于Copula的民航发动机性能参数阶段可靠性评估
V235.13; 民用航空发动机的性能参数状态呈现多阶段变化特性,目前性能参数状态的评估方法不能有效利用状态监控大数据准确识别其对民航发动机性能的影响,据此提出一种新的考虑民航发动机性能参数状态动态演变阶段相关性的可靠性评估模型.模型根据变点分阶段的特性利用动态Wiener过程对民航发动机性能参数状态进行表征,利用Copula函数建立阶段性动态Wiener过程的联合概率分布函数模型,同时结合民航发动机性能参数状态演变的首达阈值的数学性质,利用蒙特卡洛仿真抽样法进行可靠性评估.利用航空公司实际的状态监测数据验证所提模型的优越性,结果表明,相较于不考虑演变阶段间相关性的模型,所提模型对评估民航发动...
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| Published in | 南京航空航天大学学报 Vol. 55; no. 6; pp. 1081 - 1088 |
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| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | Chinese |
| Published |
中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津 300300%中国民航大学航空工程学院,天津 300300
01.12.2023
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| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 1005-2615 |
| DOI | 10.16356/j.1005-2615.2023.06.015 |
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| Abstract | V235.13; 民用航空发动机的性能参数状态呈现多阶段变化特性,目前性能参数状态的评估方法不能有效利用状态监控大数据准确识别其对民航发动机性能的影响,据此提出一种新的考虑民航发动机性能参数状态动态演变阶段相关性的可靠性评估模型.模型根据变点分阶段的特性利用动态Wiener过程对民航发动机性能参数状态进行表征,利用Copula函数建立阶段性动态Wiener过程的联合概率分布函数模型,同时结合民航发动机性能参数状态演变的首达阈值的数学性质,利用蒙特卡洛仿真抽样法进行可靠性评估.利用航空公司实际的状态监测数据验证所提模型的优越性,结果表明,相较于不考虑演变阶段间相关性的模型,所提模型对评估民航发动机性能参数的状态可靠性的平均误差降低了约12.9%. |
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| AbstractList | V235.13; 民用航空发动机的性能参数状态呈现多阶段变化特性,目前性能参数状态的评估方法不能有效利用状态监控大数据准确识别其对民航发动机性能的影响,据此提出一种新的考虑民航发动机性能参数状态动态演变阶段相关性的可靠性评估模型.模型根据变点分阶段的特性利用动态Wiener过程对民航发动机性能参数状态进行表征,利用Copula函数建立阶段性动态Wiener过程的联合概率分布函数模型,同时结合民航发动机性能参数状态演变的首达阈值的数学性质,利用蒙特卡洛仿真抽样法进行可靠性评估.利用航空公司实际的状态监测数据验证所提模型的优越性,结果表明,相较于不考虑演变阶段间相关性的模型,所提模型对评估民航发动机性能参数的状态可靠性的平均误差降低了约12.9%. |
| Abstract_FL | The evolution of performance parameter states of civil aviation engines presents multi-stage characteristics,and the current evaluation methods for performance parameters cannot effectively use the big data of state monitoring,or accurately identify their influence on the performance of civil aviation engines.Therefore,a new reliability evaluation model considering the phase correlation of dynamic evolution of civil aviation engine performance parameter states is proposed.The model uses dynamic Wiener process to characterize the states of the performance parameters of civil aviation engines according to the phase characteristics of the change point,and the joint probability distribution function model of the phased dynamic Wiener process is established by using Copula function.Monte Carlo simulation sampling method is used to evaluate the reliability based on the mathematical property of the first reach threshold of the evolution of performance parameter states.The actual condition monitoring data of airlines are used to verify the superiority of the proposed model,and the results show that compared with the model without considering the correlation between evolution stages,the average error of the proposed model for evaluating the state reliability of the performance parameters of civil aviation engines is reduced by about 12.9%. |
| Author | 张铖 李耀华 |
| AuthorAffiliation | 中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津 300300%中国民航大学航空工程学院,天津 300300 |
| AuthorAffiliation_xml | – name: 中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津 300300%中国民航大学航空工程学院,天津 300300 |
| Author_FL | LI Yaohua ZHANG Cheng |
| Author_FL_xml | – sequence: 1 fullname: LI Yaohua – sequence: 2 fullname: ZHANG Cheng |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 fullname: 李耀华 – sequence: 2 fullname: 张铖 |
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| Copyright | Copyright © Wanfang Data Co. Ltd. All Rights Reserved. |
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| DocumentTitle_FL | Stage Reliability Evaluation of Performance Parameters for Civil Aviation Engines Based on Copula |
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| Keywords | 民航发动机 civil aviation engine Wiener过程 阶段性退化 可靠性评估 reliability evaluation Copula联合概率分布函数 Wiener process Copula joint probability distribution function stage degradation |
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| PublicationTitle | 南京航空航天大学学报 |
| PublicationTitle_FL | Journal of Nanjing University of Aeronautics & Astronautics |
| PublicationYear | 2023 |
| Publisher | 中国民航大学交通科学与工程学院,天津 300300%中国民航大学航空工程学院,天津 300300 |
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| Title | 基于Copula的民航发动机性能参数阶段可靠性评估 |
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