全球气象预报驱动流域水文预报研究进展与展望

TV11; 全球气象模型及新兴人工智能模型为流域水文预报提供了日、次季节、季节等不同时间尺度的海量气象预报数据.与此同时,基于气象预报开展水文预报,涉及到数据获取、模型构建、评估检验等技术问题.本文以全球气象预报相关的研究计划为切入点,调研现有的1 d至2周小时尺度中短期天气预报、1～60d次季节尺度气象预报、1～12个月季节尺度气象预报以及新兴的人工智能气象预报;梳理气象预报驱动下流域水文预报模型方法,阐述气象预报订正、水文模型设置和预报评估检验等技术环节.基于全球气象预报生成实时和回顾性流域水文预报,定量检验不同预见期下预报精度以评估相关模型方法的预报性能,为水利工程预报-调度实践应用打下...

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Published in水科学进展 Vol. 35; no. 1; pp. 156 - 166
Main Authors 赵铜铁钢, 张弛, 田雨, 李昱, 陈泽鑫, 陈晓宏
Format Journal Article
LanguageChinese
Published 中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广东广州 510275%大连理工大学水利工程学院,辽宁大连 116024%中国水利水电科学研究院,北京 100038 2024
Subjects
climate forecasts
全球气象模型
real-time forecasts
回顾性预报
水文预报
气象预报
catchment hydrological model
实时预报
global climate model
forecast verification
预报检验
retrospective forecasts
hydrological forecasts
流域水文模型
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN1001-6791
DOI10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2024.01.014

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Abstract TV11; 全球气象模型及新兴人工智能模型为流域水文预报提供了日、次季节、季节等不同时间尺度的海量气象预报数据.与此同时,基于气象预报开展水文预报,涉及到数据获取、模型构建、评估检验等技术问题.本文以全球气象预报相关的研究计划为切入点,调研现有的1 d至2周小时尺度中短期天气预报、1～60d次季节尺度气象预报、1～12个月季节尺度气象预报以及新兴的人工智能气象预报;梳理气象预报驱动下流域水文预报模型方法,阐述气象预报订正、水文模型设置和预报评估检验等技术环节.基于全球气象预报生成实时和回顾性流域水文预报,定量检验不同预见期下预报精度以评估相关模型方法的预报性能,为水利工程预报-调度实践应用打下坚实的基础.
AbstractList TV11; 全球气象模型及新兴人工智能模型为流域水文预报提供了日、次季节、季节等不同时间尺度的海量气象预报数据.与此同时,基于气象预报开展水文预报,涉及到数据获取、模型构建、评估检验等技术问题.本文以全球气象预报相关的研究计划为切入点,调研现有的1 d至2周小时尺度中短期天气预报、1～60d次季节尺度气象预报、1～12个月季节尺度气象预报以及新兴的人工智能气象预报;梳理气象预报驱动下流域水文预报模型方法,阐述气象预报订正、水文模型设置和预报评估检验等技术环节.基于全球气象预报生成实时和回顾性流域水文预报,定量检验不同预见期下预报精度以评估相关模型方法的预报性能,为水利工程预报-调度实践应用打下坚实的基础.
Abstract_FL Global climate models and emerging artificial intelligence models generate big climate forecasts data for catchment hydrological forecasting at daily,sub-seasonal and seasonal timescales.The utilization of global climate forecasts to drive catchment hydrological models are confronted with the technical issues of climate forecast data retrieval,hydrological forecasting model set-up and verification of hydro-climatic forecasts.Starting with international collaborative research projects on global climate forecasting,this paper conducts a survey of short-term weather forecasts for the next 1 day to 2 weeks,sub-seasonal climate forecasts for the next 1 to 60 days,seasonal climate forecasts for the next 1 to 12 months and artificial intelligence-based climate forecasts.Furthermore,the processes of catchment hydrological forecasting driven by global climate forecasts are illustrated by detailing the technical aspects on the calibration of climate forecasts,the setting-up of hydrological models and the verification of predictive performance.By generating real-time and retrospective catchment hydrological forecasts from global climate forecasts,the efficacy of forecasting models can be quantitatively examined by verifying forecast skill at different lead times,laying a solid basis for practical forecasts-based operations of hydraulic infrastructure.
Author 张弛
陈晓宏
赵铜铁钢
田雨
陈泽鑫
李昱
AuthorAffiliation 中山大学水资源与环境研究中心,广东广州 510275%大连理工大学水利工程学院,辽宁大连 116024%中国水利水电科学研究院,北京 100038
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Author_FL ZHANG Chi
CHEN Xiaohong
CHEN Zexin
ZHAO Tongtiegang
TIAN Yu
LI Yu
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DocumentTitle_FL Research progresses and prospects of catchment hydrological forecasting driven by global climate forecasts
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Keywords climate forecasts
全球气象模型
real-time forecasts
回顾性预报
水文预报
气象预报
catchment hydrological model
实时预报
global climate model
forecast verification
预报检验
retrospective forecasts
hydrological forecasts
流域水文模型
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PublicationTitle 水科学进展
PublicationTitle_FL Advances in Water Science
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Title 全球气象预报驱动流域水文预报研究进展与展望
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