Finding interesting contexts for explaining deviations in bus trip duration using distribution rules

• Published in: Advances in Intelligent Data Analysis XI pp. 139 - 149
• Main Authors: Jorge, Alípio M., Moreira, João Mendes, Sousa, Jorge Freire de, Soares, Carlos, Azevedo, Paulo J.
• Format: Conference Proceeding Book Chapter
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin, Heidelberg Springer 2012; Springer Berlin Heidelberg
• Series: Lecture Notes in Computer Science
• Subjects: Bus trip duration deviations; Distribution rules
• ISBN: 9783642341557; 3642341551
• ISSN: 0302-9743; 1611-3349
• DOI: 10.1007/978-3-642-34156-4_14

In this paper we study the deviation of bus trip duration and its causes. Deviations are obtained by comparing scheduled times against actual trip duration and are either delays or early arrivals. We use distribution rules, a kind of association rules that may have continuous distributions on the consequent. Distribution rules allow the systematic identification of particular conditions, which we call contexts, under which the distribution of trip time deviations differs significantly from the overall deviation distribution. After identifying specific causes of delay the bus company operational managers can make adjustments to the timetables increasing punctuality without disrupting the service.