다중 이산 연속선택모형(MDCEV)을 이용한 한국 소비자의 신선육 구매 결정 요인

• Published in: 농촌지도와 개발 Vol. 24; no. 4; pp. 249 - 264
• Main Author: 송철호(Cheol Ho Song), 엄진용(Jin Yong Eom), 장익훈(Ik Hoon Jang), 최영찬(Young Chan Choe)
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Korean
• Published: 한국농촌지도학회 30.12.2017; Korean Association of Agricultural Extension
• Subjects: 농학; fresh meat; continuous choice model; MDCEV; multiple discrete– seasonality
• ISSN: 1976-3107; 2384-3705
• DOI: 10.12653/jecd.2017.24.4.0249

Modeling the consumer demand of fresh meat requires its distinct feature which other types of food product does not have. Most of the fresh meat products are likely to be unbranded, bought on a weight basis and affected by macro shocks such as seasonality, holiday effect and the disease incidence. Furthermore, consumers tend to purchase multiple categories of fresh meat in a week. Therefore, we apply a multiple discrete/continuous model on fresh meat consumption data to study the effect of macro shocks on fresh meat sales as well as of price change. As a result shows, Each fresh meat is relatively more likely to be bought in peak season of each fresh meat compared with imported pork which is set as a 'reference category' in this analysis. For clarity of the effect of disease incidence, we perform further analysis regarding the effect of livestock disease on fresh meat purchase probability. It shows that the avian flu in 2014 has strong negative impact on the purchase probability of chicken and the foot-and-mouth disease has negative impact on the purchase probability of pork and beef for part of outbreak periods.