The Impact of Creating Tsunami Disaster Prevention Areas on Land Prices

• Published in: THE KEIZAI BUNSEKI (THE ECONOMIC ANALYSIS) Vol. 210; p. 210_a
• Main Author: Kazushi TANAKA
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: Japanese
• Published: The Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office 24.07.2025; 内閣府経済社会総合研究所
• Subjects: H43; hazard maps; land prices; R14; R52; Tsunami disaster risk; ハザードマップ; 地価; 津波災害リスク
• ISSN: 0453-4727; 2758-9900
• DOI: 10.60294/keizaibunseki.210_a

Based on the lessons learned from the Great East Japan Earthquake, the Act on Regional De-velopment for Tsunami Disaster Prevention　was established in December 2011.As of September 2023, 40 prefectures have published tsunami flood suppositions for maximum level tsunami oc-currences under the Act, but only 26 prefectures have been designated as Tsunami Disaster Caution Zones to strengthen warning and evacuation systems, due to concerns about falling land prices and other factors. Difference in Differences estimation using the two-way fixed effect model for land price announcements in Tokushima and Kochi prefectures, which were the first prefectures to use this legal system, showed no significant decline in land prices due to the designation as Tsunami Disaster Caution Zones, but rather a positive effect. Although we cannot rule out the possibility that the positive effect may have been caused by a distortion of the estimation results due to the impact of the land price decline caused by concerns about the maximum tsunami in Kochi Prefecture, in view of the fact that Tsunami Disaster Caution Zone is a policy area to promote tsunami disaster pre-vention, the increased safety of the area may have suppressed the downward trend of land prices. In addition, the effect of tsunami evacuation buildings and tsunami evacuation towers was examined and it was found to have a 2.4% positive impact on land prices in the surrounding area.