The Spatial Patterns of Initial Errors Related to the "Winter Predictability Barrier" of the Indian Ocean Dipole

• Published in: Atmospheric and oceanic science letters = Daqi-he-haiyang-kexue-kuaibao Vol. 7; no. 5; pp. 406 - 410
• Main Authors: Rong, Feng, Wan-Suo, Duan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Beijing Routledge 01.01.2014; KeAi Publishing Communications Ltd; The National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China%The National Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics(LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
• Subjects: Errors; Fluid dynamics; Hydrodynamics; Indian Ocean dipole; initial errors; Laboratories; sensitive areas; Temperature; Winter; winter predictability barrier; Indian Ocean; Indian Ocean dipole; winter predictability barrier; sensitive areas; initial errors
• ISSN: 1674-2834; 2376-6123
• DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1674-2834.14.0018

In this study, using the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2p1 (GFDL CM2p1) coupled model, the winter predictability barrier (WPB) is found to exist in the model not only in the growing phase but also the decaying phase of positive Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events due to the effect of initial errors. In particular, the WPB is stronger in the growing phase than in the decaying phase. These results indicate that initial errors can cause the WPB. The dominant patterns of the initial errors that cause the occurrence of the WPB often present an eastern-western dipole both in the surface and subsurface temperature components. These initial errors tend to concentrate in a few areas, and these areas may represent the sensitive areas of the predictions of positive IOD events. By increasing observations over these areas and eliminating initial errors here, the WPB phenomenon may be largely weakened and the forecast skill greatly improved.