A MULTIPLE MODEL APPROACH FOR FUTURE POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF HLB: SOUTH AMERICA CASE STUDY

The objective of this work was to estimate the potential geographical distribution of HLB in South America, under historical climate records and future climate change scenarios, based on climatic conditions at the sites where HLB has been established in South America. Different spatial modeling algo...

Full description

Saved in:
Bibliographic Details
Published inInternational journal of food and agricultural economics Vol. 8; no. 2; pp. 179 - 192
Main Authors Heit, Guillermo, Sione, Walter Fabián, Aceñolaza, Pablo Gilberto
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published Fethiye Uluslararasi Gida ve Tarim Ekonomisi Dergisi 29.04.2020
Edition1128
Subjects
Algorithms
Climate Change
Climate effects
Climate models
Climatic conditions
Crop Production/Industries
Decision making
distribution model
Environmental Economics and Policy
Environmental risk
Generalized linear models
Geographical distribution
HLB, invasive species
Humidity
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Phytosanitary risk
Precipitation
Principal components analysis
Research Methods/Statistical Methods
Resource/Energy Economics and Policy
Risk and Uncertainty
Temperature
Variables
South America
Brazil
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN2147-8988
2149-3766
DOI10.22004/ag.econ.303557

Cover

More Information
Summary:The objective of this work was to estimate the potential geographical distribution of HLB in South America, under historical climate records and future climate change scenarios, based on climatic conditions at the sites where HLB has been established in South America. Different spatial modeling algorithms were used. Climate change estimates of the Fifth IPCC Assessment Report, by the 2050s and 2070s, were considered. Results of assessed models differed significantly in the estimation of areas with greater climatic riskfor the establishment of HLB in South America. According to the estimates of the fifth IPCC report, the effects of climate change would determine that in future, high-risk areas for HLB establishment would be displaced towards the southwest of the areas considered riskier nowadays. Even individual models do not present a clear pattern for HLB establishment and distribution, the integration of the results generated by different algorithms in a consensus model, can provide additional information for phytosanitary decision making.
Bibliography:ObjectType-Case Study-2
SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1
content type line 14
ObjectType-Feature-4
ObjectType-Report-1
ObjectType-Article-3
ISSN:2147-8988
2149-3766
DOI:10.22004/ag.econ.303557