Interval Prediction of Landslide Displacement Using a Pretrained Large Time Series Model Based on Large-scale Cross-domain Data

• Published in: Journal of Applied Science and Engineering Vol. 28; no. 12; pp. 2385 - 2395
• Main Authors: Xuhuang Du, Cheng Lian, Bo Xu, Zhiyong Qi, Jin Yuan, You Mou, Bing Li
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Tamkang University Press 01.01.2025
• Subjects: intervals prediction; landslide displacement prediction; large pre-trained model; transfer learning; transformer
• ISSN: 2708-9967; 2708-9975
• DOI: 10.6180/jase.202512_28(12).0007

Assessing the uncertainty in landslide displacement prediction is essential for improving the dependability of landslide early warning systems. In this study, we employ advanced Transformer-based models to develop robust probabilistic forecasting methods, which are used to construct reliable prediction intervals for landslide displacement. Furthermore, to overcome the challenge of limited data availability, a common issue due to the high costs associated with monitoring landslide displacement, we leverage Lag-LLama, a large pretrained model initially trained on extensive cross-domain time series data, to enhance the probabilistic prediction of landslide displacement. Our experiments, conducted on six real-world landslide displacement datasets from China, demonstrate that the Lag-LLama-based approach significantly outperforms state-of-the-art time series forecasting models in the context of landslide displacement interval prediction. These results highlight the potential of large pre-trained models in addressing data scarcity and improving predictive accuracy in geohazard monitoring applications.