Convergence of the Welfare of EU Countries in the Context of Integration: Hypothesis Testing

• Published in: Sovremennaia Evropa Vol. 7; pp. 127 - 138
• Main Author: Natalia B. Kondratieva
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English; Russian
• Published: Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Europe 01.12.2023
• Subjects: central and eastern european countries; compound interest formula; convergence; eu enlargement; southern european countries; welfare growth
• ISSN: 0201-7083
• DOI: 10.31857/S0201708323070100

The article analyses intercountry imbalances of socio-economic development in the European Union. The subject of the study is to check the validity of the hypothesis of convergence (rapprochment of levels) of development in the conditions of integration. Methods applied include graphical visualisation of data and statistical calculations using the compound interest formula transformed for the purpose of clarifying the hypothesis. The proposed method makes it possible to increase the predictive value of the study. The graph shows a stable gap between the catching-up countries and the average level of EU welfare (GDP per capita), with an insignificant reduction during periods of crisis. The number of years required for catching-up countries to pull up to the average level is calculated, taking into account the real growth rates of well-being in the period 2004-2022. The average convergence period exceeds 25 years, which proves its low probability. Most of the catching-up countries are unable to reach the average level of EU welfare in the foreseeable future, even with a hypothetical additional withdrawal of financial development assistance from the EU budget by an amount equivalent to one or two percent of national GDP per capita.