Trajectories of Risk for Specific Readmission Diagnoses after Hospitalization for Heart Failure, Acute Myocardial Infarction, or Pneumonia

The risk of rehospitalization is elevated in the immediate post-discharge period and declines over time. It is not known if the extent and timing of risk vary across readmission diagnoses, suggesting that recovery and vulnerability after discharge differ by physiologic system. We compared risk traje...

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Published inPloS one Vol. 11; no. 10; p. e0160492
Main Authors Krumholz, Harlan M., Hsieh, Angela, Dreyer, Rachel P., Welsh, John, Desai, Nihar R., Dharmarajan, Kumar
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published United States Public Library of Science 07.10.2016
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
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ISSN1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI10.1371/journal.pone.0160492

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Summary:The risk of rehospitalization is elevated in the immediate post-discharge period and declines over time. It is not known if the extent and timing of risk vary across readmission diagnoses, suggesting that recovery and vulnerability after discharge differ by physiologic system. We compared risk trajectories for major readmission diagnoses in the year after discharge among all Medicare fee-for-service beneficiaries hospitalized with heart failure (HF), acute myocardial infarction (AMI), or pneumonia from 2008-2010. We estimated the daily risk of rehospitalization for 12 major readmission diagnostic categories after accounting for the competing risk of death after discharge. For each diagnostic category, we identified (1) the time required for readmission risk to peak and then decline 50% from maximum values after discharge; (2) the time required for readmission risk to approach plateau periods of minimal day-to-day change; and (3) the extent to which hospitalization risks are higher among patients recently discharged from the hospital compared with the general elderly population. Among >3,000,000 hospitalizations, the yearly rate of rehospitalization was 67.0%, 49.5%, and 55.3% after hospitalization for HF, AMI, and pneumonia, respectively. The extent and timing of risk varied by readmission diagnosis and initial admitting condition. Risk of readmission for gastrointestinal bleeding/anemia peaked particularly late after hospital discharge, occurring 10, 6, and 7 days after hospitalization for HF, AMI, and pneumonia, respectively. Risk of readmission for trauma/injury declined particularly slowly, requiring 38, 20, and 38 days to decline by 50% after hospitalization for HF, AMI, and pneumonia, respectively. Patterns of vulnerability to different conditions that cause rehospitalization vary by time after hospital discharge. This finding suggests that recovery of various physiologic systems occurs at different rates and that post-discharge interventions to minimize vulnerability to specific conditions should be tailored to their underlying risks.
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Competing Interests: The authors have read the journal's policy and the authors of this manuscript have the following competing interests: Dr. Krumholz chairs a cardiac scientific advisory board for United Health and is the recipient of research agreements from Medtronic and from Johnson & Johnson (Janssen), through Yale University, to develop methods of clinical trial data sharing. Drs Krumholz and Dharmarajan work under contract to the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services to develop and maintain hospital performance measures. Dr. Dharmarajan serves on a scientific advisory board for Clover Health. This does not alter our adherence to PLOS ONE policies on sharing data and materials.
Conceived and designed the experiments: HMK.Performed the experiments: HMK AH RPD JW NRD KD.Analyzed the data: AH.Contributed reagents/materials/analysis tools: HMK.Wrote the paper: HMK AH RPD JW NRD KD.
Current address: Genentech, San Francisco, CA, United States of America
ISSN:1932-6203
1932-6203
DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0160492