The Role of Outcome Forecasts in Patients' Treatment Decisions-Evidence from a Survey Experiment on Knee Replacement Surgery

• Published in: Health services research Vol. 51; no. 1; pp. 302 - 313
• Main Authors: Kesternich, Iris, Caro, Francis G., Gottlieb, Alison S., Hoffmann, Susanne, Winter, Joachim K.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.02.2016; Health Research and Educational Trust; John Wiley and Sons Inc
• Subjects: Academic achievement; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Arthritis; Arthroplasty, Replacement, Knee - psychology; Biocompatibility; Biomedical materials; Care and treatment; Clinical outcomes; decision aids; Decision analysis; Decision Making; Decisions; Female; Forecasts and trends; Health care delivery; Health services; Humans; hypothetical choice experiment; Individualized; Joint replacement surgery; Knee; Knee replacement; Knee replacement arthroplasty; Male; Manipulation; Market trend/market analysis; Medical personnel; Medical treatment; Middle Aged; Osteoarthritis; Osteoarthritis, Knee - surgery; outcome probabilities; Patient outcomes; Patient Participation - psychology; Patient treatment choice; Patients; Physicians; Precision medicine; Probability; Research Brief; Research Briefs; Studies; Surgery; Surveys; Treatment Outcome; Weight; Patient treatment choice; decision aids; hypothetical choice experiment; outcome probabilities
• ISSN: 0017-9124; 1475-6773; 1475-6773
• DOI: 10.1111/1475-6773.12311

Objective To analyze the effect of personalized outcome probabilities on treatment decisions. Data Source American Life Panel. Study Design We designed an experimental survey that respondents answered by recommending replacement surgery for hypothetical patients diagnosed with knee osteoarthritis. The primary manipulation was whether respondents were given personalized outcome probabilities for the patients. Principal Findings Patient‐specific outcome forecasts significantly influenced decisions, with effect sizes comparable to those of physicians' opinions and patient testimonials. The presentation format also affected the probabilities' influence on choices. We did not find evidence that the educational level of subjects affected the weight that they give to outcome probabilities in making recommendations. Conclusion Our study points to a need for more research on the use of patient‐specific outcome forecasts.