A two-question tool to assess the risk of repeated falls in the elderly

• Published in: PloS one Vol. 12; no. 5; p. e0176703
• Main Authors: Rodríguez-Molinero, Alejandro, Gálvez-Barrón, César, Narvaiza, Leire, Miñarro, Antonio, Ruiz, Jorge, Valldosera, Esther, Gonzalo, Natalia, Ng, Thalia, Sanguino, María Jesús, Yuste, Antonio
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States Public Library of Science 10.05.2017; Public Library of Science (PLoS)
• Subjects: Accidental falls; Accidental Falls - prevention & control; Activities of daily living; Adults; Aged; Aged, 80 and over; Analysis; Biology and Life Sciences; Caigudes (Accidents); Computer and Information Sciences; Earth Sciences; Elderly; Engineering and Technology; Falls; Falls (Accidents); Female; Frailty; Geriatric Assessment - methods; Geriatrics; Health aspects; Health risk assessment; Health risks; Humans; Hypotheses; Informatics; Male; Medical research; Medicine and Health Sciences; Older people; People and Places; Perception; Persones grans; Population; Predictions; Predictive Value of Tests; Prospective Studies; Psychological aspects; Research and Analysis Methods; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; Risk perception; Self Concept; Self image; Self perception; Social Sciences; Studies; Surveys and Questionnaires; Telephone calls; Validity
• ISSN: 1932-6203; 1932-6203
• DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0176703

Older adults' perception of their own risk of fall has never been included into screening tools. The goal of this study was to evaluate the predictive validity of questions on subjects' self-perception of their own risk of fall. This prospective study was conducted on a probabilistic sample of 772 Spanish community-dwelling older adults, who were followed-up for a one year period. At a baseline visit, subjects were asked about their recent history of falls (question 1: "Have you fallen in the last 6 months?"), as well as on their perception of their own risk of fall by using two questions (question 2: "Do you think you may fall in the next few months?" possible answers: yes/no; question 3: "What is the probability that you fall in the next few months?" possible answers: low/intermediate/high). The follow-up consisted of quarterly telephone calls, where the number of falls occurred in that period was recorded. A short questionnaire built with questions 1 and 3 showed 70% sensitivity (95% CI: 56%-84%), 72% specificity (95% CI: 68%-76%) and 0.74 area under the ROC curve (95% CI: 0.66-0.82) for prediction of repeated falls in the subsequent year. The estimation of one's own risk of fall has predictive validity for the occurrence of repeated falls in older adults. A short questionnaire including a question on perception of one's own risk of fall and a question on the recent history of falls had good predictive validity.