Impact of vaccination and non-pharmaceutical interventions on SARS-CoV-2 dynamics in Switzerland

• Published in: Epidemics Vol. 38; p. 100535
• Main Authors: Shattock, Andrew J., Le Rutte, Epke A., Dünner, Robert P., Sen, Swapnoleena, Kelly, Sherrie L., Chitnis, Nakul, Penny, Melissa A.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands Elsevier B.V 01.03.2022; Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute, affiliated with the University of Basel. Published by Elsevier B.V; Elsevier
• Subjects: COVID-19; COVID-19 - epidemiology; COVID-19 - prevention & control; COVID-19 Vaccines; Humans; Infectious Disease; Internal Medicine; Modelling; Non-pharmaceutical intervention; SARS-CoV-2; Switzerland - epidemiology; Vaccination; Variants of concern; Switzerland; COVID-19; FOPH; OCHI; SARS-CoV-2; Non-pharmaceutical intervention; NPI; Vaccination; Variants of concern; ICU; Modelling; VOC; Coronavirus disease 2019; non-pharmaceutical intervention; variants of concern; modelling; Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2; intensive care unit; Swiss Federal Office of Public Health; Oxford Containment Health Index; vaccination
• ISSN: 1755-4365; 1878-0067; 1878-0067
• DOI: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100535

As vaccination coverage against SARS-CoV-2 increases amidst the emergence and spread of more infectious and potentially more deadly viral variants, decisions on timing and extent of relaxing effective, but unsustainable, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) need to be made. An individual-based transmission model of SARS-CoV-2 dynamics, OpenCOVID, was developed to compare the impact of various vaccination and NPI strategies on the COVID-19 epidemic in Switzerland. OpenCOVID uses the Oxford Containment Health Index (OCHI) to quantify the stringency of NPIs. Even if NPIs in place in March 2021 were to be maintained and the vaccine campaigns rollout rapidly scaled-up, a ‘third wave’ was predicted. However, we find a cautious phased relaxation can substantially reduce population-level morbidity and mortality. We find that a faster vaccination campaign can offset the size of such a wave, allowing more flexibility for NPIs to be relaxed sooner. Model outcomes were most sensitive to the level of infectiousness of variants of concern observed in Switzerland. A rapid vaccination rollout can allow the sooner relaxation of NPIs, however ongoing surveillance of - and swift responses to - emerging viral variants is of utmost importance for epidemic control. [Display omitted]