National and State Estimates of Adults with Autism Spectrum Disorder

U.S. national and state population-based estimates of adults living with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are nonexistent due to the lack of existing surveillance systems funded to address this need. Therefore, we estimated national and state prevalence of adults 18–84 years living with ASD using simu...

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Bibliographic Details
Published inJournal of autism and developmental disorders Vol. 50; no. 12; pp. 4258 - 4266
Main Authors Dietz, Patricia M., Rose, Charles E., McArthur, Dedria, Maenner, Matthew
Format Journal Article
LanguageEnglish
Published New York Springer US 01.12.2020
Springer
Springer Nature B.V
Subjects
Adolescent
Adult
Adults
Age Groups
Attrition (Research Studies)
Autism
Autism Spectrum Disorder - epidemiology
Autism Spectrum Disorders
Autistic adults
Bayes Theorem
Bayesian analysis
Bayesian Statistics
Behavioral Science and Psychology
Child
Child and School Psychology
Child Health
Computer Simulation
Copyrights
Developmental Disabilities
Diagnosis
Female
Hierarchical Linear Modeling
Humans
Incidence
Male
Massachusetts
Mathematical models
Meta Analysis
Mortality Rate
National Surveys
Neurosciences
Original Paper
Pediatrics
Pervasive Developmental Disorders
Population Groups
Population Surveillance
Prevalence
Psychology
Public Health
Regression (Statistics)
Robustness (Statistics)
Simulation
State Surveys
Statistics
Surveillance systems
Undiagnosed
Massachusetts
United States
United States > US
Intellectual disability
Prevalence estimates
Modeling
Autism spectrum disorder
Developmental disabilities
Online AccessGet full text
ISSN0162-3257
1573-3432
1573-3432
DOI10.1007/s10803-020-04494-4

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Summary:U.S. national and state population-based estimates of adults living with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are nonexistent due to the lack of existing surveillance systems funded to address this need. Therefore, we estimated national and state prevalence of adults 18–84 years living with ASD using simulation in conjunction with Bayesian hierarchal models. In 2017, we estimated that approximately 2.21% (95% simulation interval (SI) 1.95%, 2.45%) or 5,437,988 U.S. adults aged 18 and older have ASD, with state prevalence ranging from 1.97% (95% SI 1.55%, 2.45%) in Louisiana to 2.42% (95% SI 1.93%, 2.99%) in Massachusetts. Prevalence and case estimates of adults living with ASD (diagnosed and undiagnosed) can help states estimate the need for diagnosing and providing services to those unidentified.
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Author Contributions PMD conceived of the study, wrote the manuscript except for the methods; CER provided statistical expertise and conducted the analysis, wrote the methods section of the manuscript; DM conducted an independent analysis for quality control, downloaded and prepared data for analysis, and created Figures 1 and 2; MM provided statistical and data expertise. All authors reviewed and approved the final manuscript as submitted and agreed to be accountable for all aspects of the work.
ISSN:0162-3257
1573-3432
1573-3432
DOI:10.1007/s10803-020-04494-4