A Bayesian natural cubic B-spline varying coefficient method for non-ignorable dropout

• Published in: BMC medical research methodology Vol. 20; no. 1; pp. 250 - 14
• Main Authors: Moore, Camille M., MaWhinney, Samantha, Carlson, Nichole E., Kreidler, Sarah
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London BioMed Central 07.10.2020; BioMed Central Ltd; Springer Nature B.V; BMC
• Subjects: Antiretroviral drugs; Bayes Theorem; Bayesian analysis; CD4 Lymphocyte Count; Clinical trials; Data analysis; Dropout; Drug use; Female; Frailty; Health Sciences; HIV; HIV infections; Human immunodeficiency virus; Humans; Laboratories; Linear Models; Longitudinal Studies; Lymphocytes; Medical research; Medical research volunteers; Medicine; Medicine & Public Health; Methods; Missing data; Models, Statistical; Normal distribution; Research Article; Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo; Social aspects; Spline theory; Statistical Theory and Methods; statistics and modelling; Statistics for Life Sciences; Theory of Medicine/Bioethics; Varying coefficient model; Womens health; United States; Missing data; HIV; Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo; Dropout; Varying coefficient model
• ISSN: 1471-2288; 1471-2288
• DOI: 10.1186/s12874-020-01135-3

Background Dropout is a common problem in longitudinal clinical trials and cohort studies, and is of particular concern when dropout occurs for reasons that may be related to the outcome of interest. This paper reviews common parametric models to account for dropout and introduces a Bayesian semi-parametric varying coefficient model for exponential family longitudinal data with non-ignorable dropout. Methods To demonstrate these methods, we present results from a simulation study and estimate the impact of drug use on longitudinal CD4 + T cell count and viral load suppression in the Women’s Interagency HIV Study. Sensitivity analyses are performed to consider the impact of model assumptions on inference. We compare results between our semi-parametric method and parametric models to account for dropout, including the conditional linear model and a parametric frailty model. We also compare results to analyses that fail to account for dropout. Results In simulation studies, we show that semi-parametric methods reduce bias and mean squared error when parametric model assumptions are violated. In analyses of the Women’s Interagency HIV Study data, we find important differences in estimates of changes in CD4 + T cell count over time in untreated subjects that report drug use between different models used to account for dropout. We find steeper declines over time using our semi-parametric model, which makes fewer assumptions, compared to parametric models. Failing to account for dropout or to meet parametric assumptions of models to account for dropout could lead to underestimation of the impact of hard drug use on CD4 + cell count decline in untreated subjects. In analyses of subjects that initiated highly active anti-retroviral treatment, we find that the estimated probability of viral load suppression is lower in models that account for dropout. Conclusions Non-ignorable dropout is an important consideration when analyzing data from longitudinal clinical trials and cohort studies. While methods that account for non-ignorable dropout must make some unavoidable assumptions that cannot be verified from the observed data, many methods make additional parametric assumptions. If these assumptions are not met, inferences can be biased, making more flexible methods with minimal assumptions important.