GRAPES三维云初始场形成及在短临预报中的应用

围绕GRAPES_Meso的云初始场形成,以ARPS模式云分析方案为基础,优化诊断后应用我国风云二号静止气象卫星云产品、多普勒天气雷达三维组网拼图产品等观测资料结合模式背景信息,根据云热力-动力学原理及观测试验经验关系等,对云初始场的信息进行分析并通过松弛逼近同化方法实现对云内微物理信息同化应用。GRAPES_Meso中采用优化后的云初始场方案,水平分辨率为0.03°×0.03°和0.1°×0.1°的1个月（2014年7月15日-8月14日）连续试验和个例分析结果显示：云初始场形成方案能够分析出飑线等天气系统的云系和云内微物理变量特征。从模拟云图看,包含云初始场信息的GRAPES_Meso的云...

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Bibliographic Details
Published in应用气象学报 Vol. 28; no. 1; pp. 38 - 51
Main Author 朱立娟 龚建东 黄丽萍 陈德辉 江源 邓莲堂
Format Journal Article
LanguageChinese
Published 中国气象局数值预报中心,北京,100081 2017
Subjects
GRAPES_Meso
云初始场形成
短时临近预报
云初始场形成
GRAPES Meso
短时临近预报
nowcasting
cloud initial field
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ISSN1001-7313
DOI10.11898/1001-7313.20170104

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Summary:围绕GRAPES_Meso的云初始场形成,以ARPS模式云分析方案为基础,优化诊断后应用我国风云二号静止气象卫星云产品、多普勒天气雷达三维组网拼图产品等观测资料结合模式背景信息,根据云热力-动力学原理及观测试验经验关系等,对云初始场的信息进行分析并通过松弛逼近同化方法实现对云内微物理信息同化应用。GRAPES_Meso中采用优化后的云初始场方案,水平分辨率为0.03°×0.03°和0.1°×0.1°的1个月（2014年7月15日-8月14日）连续试验和个例分析结果显示：云初始场形成方案能够分析出飑线等天气系统的云系和云内微物理变量特征。从模拟云图看,包含云初始场信息的GRAPES_Meso的云系的形态特征和分布范围短时临近预报结果更为准确。云初始场信息同化应用后,在1h的时间尺度上,即可预报出与实况更为接近的降水;0~12 h时间范围内对降水均有积极的影响,可满足短时临近预报的需求,降水量级略偏大。批量连续试验（水平分辨率为0.03°×0.03°和0.1°×0.1°）的各个量级降水ETS（equitable threat score）评分都显著提高。
Bibliography:In order to get more accurate cloud initial fields in GRAPES_Meso model,the ARPS cloud analysis scheme is introduced.With some modifications or improvements based on the rational law in cloud macrocharacteristic and micro-characteristic,the cloud analysis scheme is used to set up a local cloud analysis scheme which suitable for domestic numerical weather prediction model and local synoptic observations.Based on the background field,it integrates data sources from Doppler weather radar three-dimensional mosaic reflectivity data,geostationary meteorological satellite data,and surface observation.The cloud initial information is analyzed based on cloud physical laws of thermodynamics and dynamics and the observed empirical relationship.After the cloud analysis,analyzed three dimensional fields which include information of cloud hydrometeors are introduced by nudging technique for initialization of GRAPES_Meso model.One-month（15 Jul 2014 — 14 Aug 2014） time serial of experiments in different horizontal resolution
ISSN:1001-7313
DOI:10.11898/1001-7313.20170104