Climate analogs can catalyze cross-regional dialogs for US specialty crop adaptation

• Published in: Scientific reports Vol. 13; no. 1; pp. 9317 - 12
• Main Authors: Chaudhary, Siddharth, Rajagopalan, Kirti, Kruger, Chad E., Brady, Michael P., Fraisse, Clyde W., Gustafson, David I, Hall, Sonia A., Hoogenboom, Gerrit, Melnick, Rachel L., Reyes, Julian, Stöckle, Claudio O., Sulser, Timothy B.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London Nature Publishing Group UK 08.06.2023; Nature Publishing Group; Nature Portfolio
• Subjects: 631/158/2456; 704/106/694/2739; Adaptation; climate; Climate action; Climate adaptation; Climate change; Climate change communication; Crop production; Crops; Humanities and Social Sciences; Information processing; multidisciplinary; Science; Science (multidisciplinary); Specialty crops; United States > US
• ISSN: 2045-2322; 2045-2322
• DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-35887-x

Communication theory suggests that interactive dialog rather than information transmission is necessary for climate change action, especially for complex systems like agriculture. Climate analogs—locations whose current climate is similar to a target location’s future climate—have garnered recent interest as transmitting more relatable information; however, they have unexplored potential in facilitating meaningful dialogs, and whether the way the analogs are developed could make a difference. We developed climate context-specific analogs based on agriculturally-relevant climate metrics for US specialty crop production, and explored their potential for facilitating dialogs on climate adaptation options. Over 80% of US specialty crop counties had acceptable US analogs for the mid-twenty-first century, especially in the West and Northeast which had greater similarities in the crops produced across target-analog pairs. Western counties generally had analogs to the south, and those in other regions had them to the west. A pilot dialog of target-analog pairs showed promise in eliciting actionable adaptation insights, indicating potential value in incorporating analog-driven dialogs more broadly in climate change communication.