Assessment of climate change impact on Eastern Washington agriculture

• Published in: Climatic change Vol. 102; no. 1-2; pp. 77 - 102
• Main Authors: Stöckle, Claudio O, Nelson, Roger L, Higgins, Stewart, Brunner, Jay, Grove, Gary, Boydston, Rick, Whiting, Mathew, Kruger, Chad
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Dordrecht : Springer Netherlands 01.09.2010; Springer Netherlands; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Adaptive management; Agricultural production; Agriculture; Apples; Assessments; Atmospheric Sciences; Carbon dioxide; Cereal crops; Climate; Climate change; Climate Change/Climate Change Impacts; Computer simulation; Cropping systems; Crops; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; economic valuation; Economics; Environmental assessment; Environmental impact; Freshwater; General Circulation Models; Greenhouse effect; irrigated farming; nutrients; Pest control; Pests; Plant growth; Potatoes; Precipitation; Predictions; risk reduction; simulation models; Solanum tuberosum; Soybeans; Temperature; Triticum aestivum; Washington; Water supply; Weed control; Wheat; Winter; United States > US; Washington (state); Washington; USA, Washington; Winter Wheat Production; Volunteer Potato; Winter Wheat; Climate Change Impact; Powdery Mildew
• ISSN: 0165-0009; 1573-1480
• DOI: 10.1007/s10584-010-9851-4

An assessment of the potential impact of climate change and the concurrent increase of atmospheric CO₂ concentration on eastern Washington State agriculture was conducted. Climate projections from four selected general circulation models (GCM) were chosen, and the assessment included the crops with larger economic value for the state (apples, potatoes, and wheat). To evaluate crop performance, a cropping system simulation model (CropSyst) was utilized using historical and future climate sequences. Crops were assumed to receive adequate water (irrigated crops), nutrients, and control of weeds, pests and diseases. Results project that the impact of climate change on eastern Washington agriculture will be generally mild in the short term (i.e., next two decades), but increasingly detrimental with time (potential yield losses reaching 25% for some crops by the end of the century). However, CO₂ elevation is expected to provide significant mitigation, and in fact result in yield gains for some crops. The combination of increased CO₂ and adaptive management may result in yield benefits for all crops. One limitation of the study is that water supply was assumed sufficient for irrigated crops, but other studies suggest that it may decrease in many locations due to climate change.