Assessing causality in normal and impaired short-term cardiovascular regulation via nonlinear prediction methods

• Published in: Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series A: Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences Vol. 367; no. 1892; pp. 1423 - 1440
• Main Authors: Nollo, Giandomenico, Faes, Luca, Antolini, Renzo, Porta, Alberto
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London The Royal Society 13.04.2009
• Subjects: Adult; Algorithms; Baroreflexes; Blood Pressure; Cardiovascular Physiological Phenomena; Cardiovascular System; Case-Control Studies; Causality; Computer Simulation; Global Nonlinear Prediction; Heart; Heart Rate; Heart Rate And Arterial Pressure Variability; Humans; k-nearest neighbours local nonlinear prediction; Modeling; Models, Cardiovascular; Models, Statistical; Models, Theoretical; Nearest Neighbours Local Nonlinear Prediction; Neurally Mediated Syncope; Nonlinear Granger Causality; Out-Of-Sample Prediction; Physiological regulation; Predictability; Pressure; Series convergence; Syncope; Syncope - pathology; Syncope - physiopathology; Time Factors; Time series forecasting
• ISSN: 1364-503X; 1471-2962
• DOI: 10.1098/rsta.2008.0275

We investigated the ability of mutual nonlinear prediction methods to assess causal interactions in short-term cardiovascular variability during normal and impaired conditions. Directional interactions between heart period (RR interval of the ECG) and systolic arterial pressure (SAP) short-term variability series were quantified as the cross-predictability (CP) of one series given the other, and as the predictability improvement (PI) yielded by the inclusion of samples of one series into the prediction of the other series. Nonlinear prediction was performed through global approximation (GA), approximation with locally constant models (LA0) and approximation with locally linear models (LA1) of the nonlinear function linking the samples of the two series, on patients with neurally mediated syncope and control subjects. Causality measures were evaluated in the two directions (from SAP to RR and from RR to SAP) in the supine (SU) position, in the upright position after head-up tilt (early tilt, ET) and after prolonged upright posture (late tilt, LT). While the trends for the GA, LA0 and LA1 methods were substantially superimposable, PI elicited better than CP the prevalence of causal coupling from RR to SAP during SU. Both CP and PI noted a marked decrease in coupling in both causal directions in syncope subjects during LT, documenting the impairment of cardiovascular regulation in the minutes just preceding syncope.