Bayesian Inference for Prevalence in Longitudinal Two‐Phase Studies

• Published in: Biometrics Vol. 55; no. 4; pp. 1145 - 1150
• Main Authors: Erkanli, Alaattin, Soyer, Refik, Costello, Elizabeth J.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford, UK Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.12.1999; International Biometric Society
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adolescents; Alcohol Drinking - epidemiology; alcohols; Bayes Theorem; Bayesian inference; Bayesian theory; Biometrics; Biometry; Child; Deviance information criterion; drugs; Gibbs sampling; Great Smoky Mountain region; Humans; Inference; Longitudinal Studies; Markov chain; Markov Chains; Model selection; Modeling; Models, Statistical; Monte Carlo Method; North Carolina - epidemiology; Parametric models; Prevalence estimation; Probability; Probit regression; Rural Population; Sampling bias; Sampling distributions; screening; Screening tests; Sensitivity and Specificity; Substance-Related Disorders - epidemiology; Great Smoky Mountain region; North Carolina
• ISSN: 0006-341X; 1541-0420
• DOI: 10.1111/j.0006-341X.1999.01145.x

We consider Bayesian inference and model selection for prevalence estimation using a longitudinal two‐phase design in which subjects initially receive a low‐cost screening test followed by an expensive diagnostic test conducted on several occasions. The change in the subject's diagnostic probability over time is described using four mixed‐effects probit models in which the subject‐specific effects are captured by latent variables. The computations are performed using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. These models are then compared using the deviance information criterion. The methodology is illustrated with an analysis of alcohol and drug use in adolescents using data from the Great Smoky Mountains Study.