Forecasting Innovation Pathways (FIP) for new and emerging science and technologies

• Published in: Technological forecasting & social change Vol. 80; no. 2; pp. 267 - 285
• Main Authors: Robinson, Douglas K.R., Huang, Lu, Guo, Ying, Porter, Alan L.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Elsevier Inc 01.02.2013; Elsevier; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Subjects: Biosensors; Brain implants; Business administration; Case studies; Decision making; Forecasting; Future-oriented technology analyses; Humanities and Social Sciences; Innovation pathways; Innovations; Innovationsmanagement; Kommerzialisierung; Messtechnik; Nanotechnologie; Nanotechnology; New and emerging science and technologies; Science and technology; Sociology; Studies; Technischer Fortschritt; Technologievorausschau; Technology adoption; Technology forecasting; New and emerging science and technologies; Innovation pathways; Brain implants; Technology forecasting; Future-oriented technology analyses; Biosensors; Nanotechnology
• ISSN: 0040-1625; 1873-5509
• DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2011.06.004

“New” and “Emerging Science” and “Technologies” (“NESTs”) have tremendous innovation potential. However this must be weighed against enormous uncertainties caused by many unknowns. The authors of this paper offer a framework to analyze NESTs to help ascertain likely innovation pathways. We have devised a 10-step framework based on extensive Future-oriented Technology Analyses (“FTA”) experience, enriched by in-depth case analyses. In the paper, we describe our analytical activities in two case studies. The nanobiosensor experience is contrasted with that of deep brain stimulation in relative quantitative and qualitative emphases. We close the paper by reflecting on this systematic FTA framework for emerging science and technologies, for its intended goal, that is to support decision making.