Projected changes in heatwaves over Central and South America using high-resolution regional climate simulations
Heatwaves (HWs) pose a severe threat to human and ecological systems. Here we assess the projected changes in heatwaves over Latin America using bias corrected high-resolution regional climate simulations under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs). Heatwaves are projected to be...
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Published in | Scientific reports Vol. 14; no. 1; pp. 23145 - 11 |
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Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format | Journal Article |
Language | English |
Published |
London
Nature Publishing Group UK
04.10.2024
Nature Publishing Group Nature Portfolio |
Subjects | |
Online Access | Get full text |
ISSN | 2045-2322 2045-2322 |
DOI | 10.1038/s41598-024-73521-6 |
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Summary: | Heatwaves (HWs) pose a severe threat to human and ecological systems. Here we assess the projected changes in heatwaves over Latin America using bias corrected high-resolution regional climate simulations under two Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs). Heatwaves are projected to be more frequent, long-lasting, and intense in the mid-century under both RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with severe increases under the RCP8.5 scenario. Even under the low emissions scenario of RCP2.6, the frequency of heatwaves doubles over most of the region. A three- to tenfold rise in population exposure to heatwave days is projected over Central and South America, with climate change playing a dominant role in driving these changes. Results show that following the low emission pathway would reduce 57% and 50% of heatwave exposure for Central and South American regions respectively, highlighting the need to control anthropogenic emissions and implement sustainable practices. |
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Bibliography: | ObjectType-Article-1 SourceType-Scholarly Journals-1 ObjectType-Feature-2 content type line 14 content type line 23 |
ISSN: | 2045-2322 2045-2322 |
DOI: | 10.1038/s41598-024-73521-6 |