Correlation analysis between Korean spring drought and large-scale teleconnection patterns for drought forecasting

• Published in: KSCE journal of civil engineering Vol. 21; no. 1; pp. 458 - 466
• Main Authors: Kim, Jong-Suk, Seo, Gil-Su, Jang, Ho-Won, Lee, Joo-Heon
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Seoul Korean Society of Civil Engineers 01.01.2017; Springer Nature B.V; 대한토목학회
• Subjects: Analysis; Atmospheric circulation; Atmospheric forcing; Civil Engineering; Climatology; Correlation; Correlation analysis; Drought; Droughts; Engineering; Geotechnical Engineering & Applied Earth Sciences; Industrial Pollution Prevention; North Atlantic Oscillation; Ocean-atmosphere system; Oscillations; Outliers (statistics); Parameter identification; Parameters; Peninsulas; Precipitation; Precipitation (meteorology); Spring; Spring (season); Teleconnections; Time lag; Water Engineering; 토목공학; Korean Peninsula; INW, Japan, Kyushu; ISEW, West Pacific; Korea, Rep; AN, North Atlantic, North Atlantic Oscillation; INW, Korea, Rep; atmospheric teleconnection patterns; NAO pattern; drought; GPCP
• ISSN: 1226-7988; 1976-3808
• DOI: 10.1007/s12205-016-0580-8

This study aims to examine the causes and predictability of spring droughts in the Korean Peninsula. To achieve this goal, we conducted a correlation analysis of global atmospheric circulation patterns and space-time changes in droughts in Korea. The analysis of the contemporaneous correlation between precipitation and atmospheric teleconnection patterns showed a higher correlation between precipitation in the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the West Pacific (WP) pattern in spring within East China, Kyushu Island, and South Korea. However, since this correlation was identified for the same season, it cannot be used as a predicting factor for spring droughts. The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern displayed a lagged correlation with precipitation (with a time lag of three months) and was identified as a possible parameter for improving the ability to predict droughts in Korea. When comparing the average precipitation in spring with the levels of precipitation during years with NAO outliers, droughts occurred when the precipitation in years of NAO outliers was lower than the average precipitation. Therefore, rather than the WP pattern, the NAO may be an appropriate parameter for predicting droughts in the Korean Peninsula. We expect that these findings will support the establishment of practical adaptation strategies for spring droughts in East Asia.