Sensitivity Analysis and Bounding of Causal Effects With Alternative Identifying Assumptions

• Published in: Journal of educational and behavioral statistics Vol. 36; no. 4; pp. 415 - 440
• Main Authors: Jo, Booil, Vinokur, Amiram D.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Los Angeles, CA SAGE Publications 01.08.2011; American Educational Research Association
• Subjects: Causality; Confidence interval; Employment; Estimators; Experimentation; Forecasting techniques; Inference; Intervention; Job hunting; Missing data; Nonparametric Statistics; Parameter estimation; Point estimators; Sample mean; Sensitivity analysis; Statistical Analysis; Statistical Inference; Unemployment; sensitivity analysis; bounds; principal stratification; alternative assumptions; causal inference; noncompliance; missing data
• ISSN: 1076-9986; 1935-1054
• DOI: 10.3102/1076998610383985

When identification of causal effects relies on untestable assumptions regarding nonidentified parameters, sensitivity of causal effect estimates is often questioned. For proper interpretation of causal effect estimates in this situation, deriving bounds on causal parameters or exploring the sensitivity of estimates to scientifically plausible alternative assumptions can be critical. In this article, the authors propose a practical way of bounding and sensitivity analysis, where multiple identifying assumptions are combined to construct tighter common bounds. In particular, the authors focus on the use of competing identifying assumptions that impose different restrictions on the same nonidentified parameter. Since these assumptions are connected through the same parameter, direct translation across them is possible. Based on this cross-translatability, various information in the data, carried by alternative assumptions, can be effectively combined to construct tighter bounds on causal effects. Flexibility of the suggested approach is demonstrated focusing on the estimation of the complier average causal effect (CACE) in a randomized job search intervention trial that suffers from noncompliance and subsequent missing outcomes.