Subjective probabilities and scoring rules: experimental evidence
This paper provides an articulation of the theory of scoring rules that leads to a testable hypothesis about strategic behavior under an improper rule. Subjects in a laboratory setting were first screened for linear utility in the range of rewards. Those that passed this test were used as subjects i...
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| Published in | American journal of agricultural economics Vol. 71; no. 2; pp. 363 - 369 |
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| Main Authors | , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
Menasha, Wis
Oxford University Press
01.05.1989
American Agricultural Economics Association Blackwell American Farm Economic Association |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0002-9092 1467-8276 |
| DOI | 10.2307/1241594 |
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| Abstract | This paper provides an articulation of the theory of scoring rules that leads to a testable hypothesis about strategic behavior under an improper rule. Subjects in a laboratory setting were first screened for linear utility in the range of rewards. Those that passed this test were used as subjects in a probability forecasting experiment. Results suggest that theory holds when subjects forecast over many periods, although inexperienced subjects may fail to exploit the dominant strategy in the initial periods. |
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| AbstractList | This paper provides an articulation of the theory of scoring rules that leads to a testable hypothesis about strategic behavior under an improper rule. Subjects in a laboratory setting were first screened for linear utility in the range of rewards. Those that passed this test were used as subjects in a probability forecasting experiment. Results suggest that theory holds when subjects forecast over many periods, although inexperienced subjects may fail to exploit the dominant strategy in the initial periods. This paper provides an articulation of the theory of scoring rules that leads to a testable hypothesis about strategic behavior under an improper rule. Subjects in a laboratory setting were first screened for linear utility in the range of rewards. Those that passed this test were used as subjects in a probability forecasting experiment. Results suggest that theory holds when subjects forecast over many periods, although inexperienced subjects may fail to exploit the dominant strategy in the initial periods |
| Author | Nelson, Robert G. Bessler, David A. |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 fullname: Nelson, R.G. (Sam Houston State University) – sequence: 2 fullname: Bessler, D.A |
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| Copyright | Copyright 1989 American Agricultural Economics Association 1989 Agricultural and Applied Economics Association |
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| SubjectTerms | Agricultural economics agricultural research ANALISIS ESTADISTICO ANALYSE STATISTIQUE analysis of variance computer software CONCIENCIA SOCIAL CONSCIENCE SOCIALE Crop economics Crops decision making Dominant strategy Earnings forecasting Economic expectations empirical models Entscheidung EVALUACION EVALUATION game theory INVESTIGACION linear programming linear rule linear utility LOGICIEL mathematical models mathematical theory POLITICA MONETARIA POLITIQUE MONETAIRE prediction PREVISION PRISE DE DECISION Probabilities probability probability analysis Probability forecasts PROGRAMACION PROGRAMAS DE ORDENADOR PROGRAMMATION PRONOSTICO proper rule quadratic rule RECHERCHE subjective probability assessment Theorie Time series forecasting TOMA DE DECISIONES Utility functions validity wages and remuneration Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung |
| Title | Subjective probabilities and scoring rules: experimental evidence |
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