Tourism Demand Prediction Model Using Particle Swarm Algorithm and Neural Network in Big Data Environment

• Published in: Journal of environmental and public health Vol. 2022; no. 1; p. 3048928
• Main Authors: Xu, Sai, Wang, Shuxia
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Hindawi 2022; John Wiley & Sons, Inc
• Subjects: Accuracy; Algorithms; Analysis; Artificial intelligence; Big data; Demand; Economic forecasting; Fault tolerance; Forecasting; Forecasting techniques; Forecasts and trends; Genetic algorithms; Information processing; Information storage; Innovations; Local optimization; Model accuracy; Neural networks; Optimization; Optimization models; Performance indices; Prediction models; Research methodology; Swarm intelligence; Tourism; Travel industry
• ISSN: 1687-9805; 1687-9813; 1687-9813
• DOI: 10.1155/2022/3048928

Since demand forecasting is the first step in managing and operating a tourism business, its accuracy is very important to tourism businesses. In order to address NN’s drawbacks, such as local optimization, slow convergence, and large sample sizes, this paper organically combines the PSO and NN models and builds a PSO-NN-based tourism demand forecasting model. The tourism demand forecasting indexes, the choice of NN forecasting models, the modelling process, and the implementation methods are first analysed and studied along with the fundamental theories and forecasting techniques of PSO and NN. In order to increase the precision of the prediction model, the PSO algorithm is also used to optimise the weights and thresholds of the NN. The final section of the paper compares the performance of the model developed in this paper with the most widely used model for forecasting tourism demand. According to the experimental findings, this model’s prediction accuracy can reach 95.81 percent, or about 10.09 percent higher than the prediction accuracy of the conventional NN model. There are some practical implications to this research. Applying the optimization model to the forecast of tourism demand is doable and practical.