Delays, Masks, the Elderly, and Schools: First Covid-19 Wave in the Czech Republic
Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological...
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| Published in | Bulletin of mathematical biology Vol. 84; no. 8; p. 75 |
|---|---|
| Main Authors | , , , , , , , , , , , , |
| Format | Journal Article |
| Language | English |
| Published |
New York
Springer US
01.08.2022
Springer Nature B.V |
| Subjects | |
| Online Access | Get full text |
| ISSN | 0092-8240 1522-9602 1522-9602 |
| DOI | 10.1007/s11538-022-01031-5 |
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| Abstract | Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological data for the first Covid-19 wave in the Czech Republic and found that (1) starting the spring 2020 lockdown 4 days earlier might prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of lockdown period, (2) personal protective measures such as face masks appear more effective than just a realized reduction in social contacts, (3) the strategy of sheltering just the elderly is not at all effective, and (4) leaving schools open is a risky strategy. Despite vaccination programs, evidence-based choice and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains an effective weapon against the Covid-19 pandemic. |
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| AbstractList | Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological data for the first Covid-19 wave in the Czech Republic and found that (1) starting the spring 2020 lockdown 4 days earlier might prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of lockdown period, (2) personal protective measures such as face masks appear more effective than just a realized reduction in social contacts, (3) the strategy of sheltering just the elderly is not at all effective, and (4) leaving schools open is a risky strategy. Despite vaccination programs, evidence-based choice and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains an effective weapon against the Covid-19 pandemic.Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological data for the first Covid-19 wave in the Czech Republic and found that (1) starting the spring 2020 lockdown 4 days earlier might prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of lockdown period, (2) personal protective measures such as face masks appear more effective than just a realized reduction in social contacts, (3) the strategy of sheltering just the elderly is not at all effective, and (4) leaving schools open is a risky strategy. Despite vaccination programs, evidence-based choice and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains an effective weapon against the Covid-19 pandemic. Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological data for the first Covid-19 wave in the Czech Republic and found that (1) starting the spring 2020 lockdown 4 days earlier might prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of lockdown period, (2) personal protective measures such as face masks appear more effective than just a realized reduction in social contacts, (3) the strategy of sheltering just the elderly is not at all effective, and (4) leaving schools open is a risky strategy. Despite vaccination programs, evidence-based choice and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains an effective weapon against the Covid-19 pandemic. Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological data for the first Covid-19 wave in the Czech Republic and found that (1) starting the spring 2020 lockdown 4 days earlier might prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of lockdown period, (2) personal protective measures such as face masks appear more effective than just a realized reduction in social contacts, (3) the strategy of sheltering just the elderly is not at all effective, and (4) leaving schools open is a risky strategy. Despite vaccination programs, evidence-based choice and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains an effective weapon against the Covid-19 pandemic. |
| ArticleNumber | 75 |
| Author | Smyčka, Jan Diviák, Tomáš Šoltés, Michal Šlerka, Josef Vidnerová, Petra Berec, Luděk Hromádková, Eva Zajíček, Milan Trnka, Jan Neruda, Roman Tuček, Vít Šmíd, Martin Levínský, René |
| Author_xml | – sequence: 1 givenname: Luděk orcidid: 0000-0002-2419-3324 surname: Berec fullname: Berec, Luděk email: lberec@prf.jcu.cz organization: Department of Mathematics, Centre for Mathematical Biology, Faculty of Science, University of South Bohemia, Czech Academy of Sciences, Biology Centre, Institute of Entomology, Centre for Modelling of Biological and Social Processes – sequence: 2 givenname: Jan surname: Smyčka fullname: Smyčka, Jan organization: Center for Theoretical Studies – sequence: 3 givenname: René surname: Levínský fullname: Levínský, René organization: Centre for Modelling of Biological and Social Processes, CERGE-EI – sequence: 4 givenname: Eva surname: Hromádková fullname: Hromádková, Eva organization: CERGE-EI – sequence: 5 givenname: Michal surname: Šoltés fullname: Šoltés, Michal organization: CERGE-EI – sequence: 6 givenname: Josef surname: Šlerka fullname: Šlerka, Josef organization: Centre for Modelling of Biological and Social Processes, New Media Studies, Faculty of Arts, Charles University – sequence: 7 givenname: Vít surname: Tuček fullname: Tuček, Vít organization: Centre for Modelling of Biological and Social Processes, Department of Mathematics, University of Zagreb – sequence: 8 givenname: Jan surname: Trnka fullname: Trnka, Jan organization: Department of Biochemistry, Cell and Molecular Biology, Third Faculty of Medicine, Charles University – sequence: 9 givenname: Martin surname: Šmíd fullname: Šmíd, Martin organization: Centre for Modelling of Biological and Social Processes, Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Information Theory and Automation – sequence: 10 givenname: Milan surname: Zajíček fullname: Zajíček, Milan organization: Centre for Modelling of Biological and Social Processes, Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Information Theory and Automation – sequence: 11 givenname: Tomáš surname: Diviák fullname: Diviák, Tomáš organization: Centre for Modelling of Biological and Social Processes, Department of Criminology, School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester – sequence: 12 givenname: Roman surname: Neruda fullname: Neruda, Roman organization: Centre for Modelling of Biological and Social Processes, Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Computer Science – sequence: 13 givenname: Petra surname: Vidnerová fullname: Vidnerová, Petra organization: Centre for Modelling of Biological and Social Processes, Czech Academy of Sciences, Institute of Computer Science |
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| Keywords | Covid-19 pandemic School closure Approximate Bayesian computation Age structure Non-pharmaceutical interventions |
| Language | English |
| License | This article is made available via the PMC Open Access Subset for unrestricted research re-use and secondary analysis in any form or by any means with acknowledgement of the original source. These permissions are granted for the duration of the World Health Organization (WHO) declaration of COVID-19 as a global pandemic. |
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| Title | Delays, Masks, the Elderly, and Schools: First Covid-19 Wave in the Czech Republic |
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