Delays, Masks, the Elderly, and Schools: First Covid-19 Wave in the Czech Republic

• Published in: Bulletin of mathematical biology Vol. 84; no. 8; p. 75
• Main Authors: Berec, Luděk, Smyčka, Jan, Levínský, René, Hromádková, Eva, Šoltés, Michal, Šlerka, Josef, Tuček, Vít, Trnka, Jan, Šmíd, Martin, Zajíček, Milan, Diviák, Tomáš, Neruda, Roman, Vidnerová, Petra
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: New York Springer US 01.08.2022; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Cell Biology; COVID-19; COVID-19 Publications; Epidemic models; Epidemiology; Life Sciences; Masks; Mathematical and Computational Biology; Mathematics; Mathematics and Statistics; Older people; Pandemics; Vaccination; Czech Republic; Covid-19 pandemic; School closure; Approximate Bayesian computation; Age structure; Non-pharmaceutical interventions
• ISSN: 0092-8240; 1522-9602; 1522-9602
• DOI: 10.1007/s11538-022-01031-5

Running across the globe for nearly 2 years, the Covid-19 pandemic keeps demonstrating its strength. Despite a lot of understanding, uncertainty regarding the efficiency of interventions still persists. We developed an age-structured epidemic model parameterized with epidemiological and sociological data for the first Covid-19 wave in the Czech Republic and found that (1) starting the spring 2020 lockdown 4 days earlier might prevent half of the confirmed cases by the end of lockdown period, (2) personal protective measures such as face masks appear more effective than just a realized reduction in social contacts, (3) the strategy of sheltering just the elderly is not at all effective, and (4) leaving schools open is a risky strategy. Despite vaccination programs, evidence-based choice and timing of non-pharmaceutical interventions remains an effective weapon against the Covid-19 pandemic.