Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model

• Published in: Environmental science and pollution research international Vol. 26; no. 4; pp. 3184 - 3195
• Main Authors: Navarro, Andrés, Moreno, Raúl, Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso, Tapiador, Francisco J.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Berlin/Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 01.02.2019; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Aquatic Pollution; Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Carbon dioxide; Carbon Dioxide - analysis; Carbon dioxide emissions; Climate Change; Climate models; Computer simulation; Contaminated sites; Coupling; Earth; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth models; Earth system science; Ecology - methods; Ecotoxicology; Embedded systems; Emission inventories; Environment; Environmental Chemistry; Environmental Health; Environmental Monitoring - methods; Environmental research; Environmental science; greenhouse gas emissions; human population; Human populations; Humans; inventories; Models, Theoretical; Modules; Parameterization; pollution; Pollution research; Pollution studies; Population; Population Dynamics; Spatial discrimination; Spatial resolution; System dynamics; United Nations; waste management and green chemistry: New challenges from monitoring to remediation; Waste Water Technology; Water Management; Water Pollution Control; Climate change; Anthropogenic emissions; Population; System dynamics; Pollution research; Climate modeling
• ISSN: 0944-1344; 1614-7499; 1614-7499
• DOI: 10.1007/s11356-017-0127-7

Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.