Uncertainty Analysis of Life Cycle Energy Assessment in Early Stages of Design

• Published in: Energy and buildings Vol. 208; p. 109635
• Main Authors: Harter, Hannes, Singh, Manav Mahan, Schneider-Marin, Patricia, Lang, Werner, Geyer, Philipp
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Lausanne Elsevier B.V 01.02.2020; Elsevier BV
• Subjects: Building design; Buildings; Decisions; Design; Early design stages; Energy audits; Energy demand; Life cycle analysis; Life cycle assessment; Life cycle assessment (LCA); Life cycle energy assessment (LCEA); Life cycles; Sustainable building development; Uncertainty analysis; Life cycle assessment (LCA); Early design stages; Life cycle energy assessment (LCEA); Uncertainty analysis; Sustainable building development
• ISSN: 0378-7788; 1872-6178; 1872-6178
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enbuild.2019.109635

•Uncertain parameters have a high influence on the lifecycle-based energy efficiency.•Uncertainty analysis must be performed to identify the impact of the uncertainties.•Results allow the designer to prioritize decisions to decrease uncertainty.•Enable lifecycle-based energy efficiency already at beginning of construction projects. During building design and especially in early stages, important decisions influencing the lifecycle-based energy demand of buildings are made. Life Cycle Energy Assessment (LCEA) is used to evaluate this energy demand already in early stages of design. However, at that point, the building design and the related information can quickly change and are subject to potentially large uncertainty. This uncertainty in building information influences the LCEA and therefore decisions taken by the designer. Due to the uncertainty, it is difficult to distinguish between the performance of different design variants to decide for the best option. This study presents a method to perform LCEA and to assess and consequently strategically reduce the influence of uncertainties in buildings’ information on the LCEA in early design stages. Uncertainty analysis is used to assess the influence of uncertainty on LCEA and to prioritize decisions to reduce uncertainty. The method is embedded in a multi-Level of Development (LOD) modelling approach covering the development of the building during the early stages of design. The method is applied to seven different building shapes as a proof of concept. It is concluded that the method renders valid results to assess the project-specific uncertainty in LCEA results.