Predicted Long-Term Cardiovascular Risk Among Young Adults in the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health

• Published in: American journal of public health (1971) Vol. 104; no. 12; pp. e108 - e115
• Main Authors: Clark, Cari Jo, Alonso, Alvaro, Spencer, Rachael A., Pencina, Michael, Williams, Ken, Everson-Rose, Susan A.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: United States American Public Health Association 01.12.2014
• Subjects: Adolescent; Adolescents; Adult; Adults; African Americans; American Indians; Black people; Body Mass Index; Cardiovascular Disease; Cardiovascular diseases; Cardiovascular Diseases - epidemiology; Cardiovascular Diseases - ethnology; Diabetes Mellitus - epidemiology; Ethnicity; Female; Forecasting; Health risk assessment; Health risks; Humans; Hypertension - drug therapy; Hypertension - epidemiology; Long term; Longitudinal Studies; Male; Men; Native North Americans; Online Research and Practice; Prevention; Public health; Racial differences; Risk; Risk Factors; Smoking - epidemiology; Socioeconomic Factors; Socioeconomic status; Socioeconomics; Teenagers; United States - epidemiology; Women; Young adults; United States; United States > US
• ISSN: 0090-0036; 1541-0048; 1541-0048
• DOI: 10.2105/AJPH.2014.302148

Objectives. We estimated the distribution of predicted long-term cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk among young adults in the United States. Methods. Our data were derived from National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health participants (n = 14 333; average age: 28.9 years). We used a Framingham-derived risk prediction function to calculate 30-year risks of “hard” and “general” CVD by gender and race/ethnicity. Results. Average 30-year risks for hard and general CVD were 10.4% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 10.1%, 10.7%) and 17.3% (95% CI = 17.0%, 17.7%) among men and 4.4% (95% CI = 4.3%, 4.6%) and 9.2% (95% CI = 8.9%, 9.5%) among women. Average age-adjusted risks of hard and general CVD were higher among Blacks and American Indians than among Whites and lower among Asian/Pacific Islander women than White women. American Indian men continued to have a higher risk of general CVD after adjustment for socioeconomic status. Four percent of women (95% CI = 3.6%, 5.0%) and 26.2% of men (95% CI = 24.7%, 27.8%) had a 20% or higher risk of general CVD. Racial differences were detected but were not significant after adjustment for socioeconomic status. Conclusions. Average CVD risk among young adults is high. Population-based prevention strategies and improved detection and treatment of high-risk individuals are needed to reduce the future burden of CVD.