Modeling of drinking and driving behaviors among adolescents and young adults in the United States: Complexities and Intervention outcomes

• Published in: Social science & medicine (1982) Vol. 354; p. 117087
• Main Authors: Hosseinichimeh, Niyousha, MacDonald, Rod, Li, Kaigang, Fell, James C., Haynie, Denise L., Simons-Morton, Bruce, Banz, Barbara C., Camenga, Deepa R., Iannotti, Ronald J., Curry, Leslie A., Dziura, James, Andersen, David F., Vaca, Federico E.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Elsevier Ltd 01.08.2024
• Subjects: Accidents, Traffic - prevention & control; Accidents, Traffic - statistics & numerical data; Adolescent; Alcohol Drinking - epidemiology; Alcohol Drinking - psychology; Automobile Driving - psychology; Automobile Driving - statistics & numerical data; Binge drinking; Driving Under the Influence - prevention & control; Driving Under the Influence - statistics & numerical data; Driving while impaired (DWI); Enforcement; Female; Group model building (GMB); Humans; Male; Models, Theoretical; Peer influences; System dynamics (SD); United States - epidemiology; Young Adult; United States; Binge drinking; Driving while impaired (DWI); Enforcement; Peer influences; System dynamics (SD); Group model building (GMB)
• ISSN: 0277-9536; 1873-5347; 1873-5347
• DOI: 10.1016/j.socscimed.2024.117087

Alcohol-impaired driving is a formidable public health problem in the United States, claiming the lives of 37 individuals daily in alcohol-related crashes. Alcohol-impaired driving is affected by a multitude of interconnected factors, coupled with long delays between stakeholders’ actions and their impacts, which not only complicate policy-making but also increase the likelihood of unintended consequences. We developed a system dynamics simulation model of drinking and driving behaviors among adolescents and young adults. This was achieved through group model building sessions with a team of multidisciplinary subject matter experts, and a focused literature review. The model was calibrated with data series from multiple sources and replicated the historical trends for male and female individuals aged 15 to 24 from 1982 to 2020. We simulated the model under different scenarios to examine the impact of a wide range of interventions on alcohol-related crash fatalities. We found that interventions vary in terms of their effectiveness in reducing alcohol-related crash fatalities. In addition, although some interventions reduce alcohol-related crash fatalities, some may increase the number of drinkers who drive after drinking. Based on insights from simulation experiments, we combined three interventions and found that the combined strategy may reduce alcohol-related crash fatalities significantly without increasing the number of alcohol-impaired drivers on US roads. Nevertheless, related fatalities plateau over time despite the combined interventions, underscoring the need for new interventions for a sustained decline in alcohol-related crash deaths beyond a few decades. Finally, through model calibration we estimated time delays between actions and their consequences in the system which provide insights for policymakers and activists when designing strategies to reduce alcohol-related crash fatalities. •Driving while impaired (DWI) among adolescents and young adults is a complex problem.•DWI is affected by multiple factors that interact over time.•Some modeled interventions reduce related fatalities but increase impaired drivers.•A combined strategy reduces related fatalities without increasing impaired drivers.