Potential for emergence of Japanese encephalitis in the European Union

• Published in: Zoonoses and public health Vol. 71; no. 3; pp. 274 - 280
• Main Authors: Gossner, Céline M., Dhollander, Sofie, Presser, Lance D., Briet, Oliver, Bakonyi, Tamas, Schaffner, Francis, Figuerola, Jordi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Germany Blackwell Publishing Ltd 01.05.2024
• Subjects: Africa; Animals; Aquatic insects; arboviruses; Bird migration; Birds; Caucasus region; Central Asia; Culicidae; Disease prevention; Emergence; Encephalitis; Encephalitis Virus, Japanese; Encephalitis, Japanese - epidemiology; Encephalitis, Japanese - veterinary; Environmental conditions; European Union; flavivirus; Geographical distribution; Health care policy; Health risk assessment; Health risks; Humans; Japanese encephalitis; Japanese encephalitis virus; Middle East; migratory behavior; migratory birds; Mitigation; Mosquitoes; probability; Probability theory; Public health; Risk assessment; Swine; Swine Diseases; Vector-borne diseases; virus transmission; Viruses; zoonoses; zoonosis; Middle East; Central Asia; Caucasus region; Africa; European Union; emergence; arboviruses; migratory birds; zoonosis; Japanese encephalitis; flavivirus
• ISSN: 1863-1959; 1863-2378; 1863-2378
• DOI: 10.1111/zph.13103

Background and objective No autochthonous human cases of Japanese encephalitis (JE) have been reported to date in the European Union (EU). In this study, we assess the likelihood of Japanese encephalitis virus (JEV) introduction and transmission within the EU and propose outbreak response measures. Risk assessment Given the global geographical distribution of JEV, the probability of virus introduction into the EU is currently very low, with viremic bird migration being the most plausible pathway of introduction. However, this likelihood would significantly increase if the virus were to become established in the Middle East, Caucasus, Central Asia or Africa. Considering the environmental conditions that are expected to be conducive for virus circulation, there is a high likelihood of virus transmission within the EU after its introduction in environmentally suitable areas. The spread of the virus within the EU would likely occur through the movement of wild birds, pigs and mosquitoes. Mitigation To mitigate or potentially contain the emergence of JE in the EU, early detection of both human and animal cases will be crucial.