Comparative Study on Response Surfaces for Reliability Analysis of Spatially Variable Soil Slope

• Published in: China ocean engineering Vol. 29; no. 1; pp. 81 - 90
• Main Author: 李亮 褚雪松
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Heidelberg Chinese Ocean Engineering Society 01.03.2015
• Subjects: Coastal Sciences; Computer simulation; Engineering; Fluid- and Aerodynamics; Marine; Marine & Freshwater Sciences; Mathematical analysis; Mathematical models; Numerical and Computational Physics; Oceanography; Offshore Engineering; Response surfaces; Searching; Simulation; Slip; Slopes; Soil (material); System failures; 可靠性分析; 响应曲面; 响应面; 潜在滑动面; 空间变化; 粘性土坡; 系统失效概率; 蒙特卡罗模拟; response surface method; Monte Carlo simulation; probabilistic slope stability analysis
• ISSN: 0890-5487; 2191-8945
• DOI: 10.1007/s13344-015-0006-2

This paper focuses on the performance of the second-order polynomial-based response surfaces on the reliability of spatially variable soil slope. A single response surface constructed to approximate the slope system failure performance function G（X） （called single RS） and multiple response surfaces constructed on finite number of slip surfaces （called multiple RS） are developed, respectively. Single RS and multiple RS are applied to evaluate the system failure probability pf for a cohesive soil slope together with Monte Carlo simulation （MCS）. It is found thatpe calculated by single RS deviates significantly from that obtained by searching a large number of potential slip surfaces, and this deviation becomes insignificant with the decrease of the number of random variables or the increase of the scale of fluctuation. In other words, single RS cannot approximate G（X） with reasonable accuracy. The value of pc from multiple response surfaces fits well with that obtained by searching a large number of potential slip surfaces. That is, multiple RS can estimate G（X） with reasonable accuracy.