Multi-step wind speed forecasting based on a hybrid forecasting architecture and an improved bat algorithm

• Published in: Energy conversion and management Vol. 143; pp. 410 - 430
• Main Authors: Xiao, Liye, Qian, Feng, Shao, Wei
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Oxford Elsevier Ltd 01.07.2017; Elsevier Science Ltd
• Subjects: Algorithms; Architecture; case studies; China; Chiroptera; Controllability; data collection; energy; Energy sources; Forecasting; General regression neural networks; Hybrid forecasting architecture; Improved bat algorithm; Mathematical models; Neural networks; pollution; Power plants; Regression analysis; Singular spectrum analysis, wind speed forecasting; Spectrum analysis; Sustainable energy; Weather forecasting; Wind power; Wind speed; China; ANN; FEEMD; GRNN; WPD; SVM; WD; Hybrid forecasting architecture; CSA; SDA; EEMD; GA; EA; EMD; MSE; Improved bat algorithm; SSA; CG; MAPE; Singular spectrum analysis, wind speed forecasting; PSO; MAE; RBFNN; FVD; ARIMA; BA
• ISSN: 0196-8904; 1879-2227
• DOI: 10.1016/j.enconman.2017.04.012

•Propose a hybrid architecture based on a modified bat algorithm for multi-step wind speed forecasting.•Improve the accuracy of multi-step wind speed forecasting.•Modify bat algorithm with CG to improve optimized performance. As one of the most promising sustainable energy sources, wind energy plays an important role in energy development because of its cleanliness without causing pollution. Generally, wind speed forecasting, which has an essential influence on wind power systems, is regarded as a challenging task. Analyses based on single-step wind speed forecasting have been widely used, but their results are insufficient in ensuring the reliability and controllability of wind power systems. In this paper, a new forecasting architecture based on decomposing algorithms and modified neural networks is successfully developed for multi-step wind speed forecasting. Four different hybrid models are contained in this architecture, and to further improve the forecasting performance, a modified bat algorithm (BA) with the conjugate gradient (CG) method is developed to optimize the initial weights between layers and thresholds of the hidden layer of neural networks. To investigate the forecasting abilities of the four models, the wind speed data collected from four different wind power stations in Penglai, China, were used as a case study. The numerical experiments showed that the hybrid model including the singular spectrum analysis and general regression neural network with CG-BA (SSA-CG-BA-GRNN) achieved the most accurate forecasting results in one-step to three-step wind speed forecasting.