A MULTIDISCIPLINARY PERSPECTIVE ON CLIMATE MODEL EVALUATION FOR ANTARCTICA

• Published in: Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society Vol. 97; no. 2; pp. ES23 - ES26
• Main Authors: Bracegirdle, T. J., Bertler, N. A. N., Carleton, A. M., Ding, Q., Fogwill, C. J., Fyfe, J. C., Hellmer, H. H., Karpechko, A. Y., Kusahara, K., Larour, E., Mayewski, P. A., Meier, W. N., Polvani, L. M., Russell, J. L., Stevenson, S. L., Turner, J., van Wessem, J. M., van de Berg, W. J., Wainer, I.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Boston American Meteorological Society 01.02.2016
• Subjects: 21st century; Atmosphere; Climate change; Climate models; Global warming; Holocene; MEETING SUMMARIES; Ocean circulation; Pliocene; Trends; Antarctica; Southern Ocean
• ISSN: 0003-0007; 1520-0477; 1520-0477
• DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-15-00108.1

[...]the observational data against which models are assessed is often limited in both time and space. [...]when assessing multidecadal projections of future change, model evaluation should include consideration of the following factors: i) expert judgment on whether important processes are represented correctly in the model in question, ii) appropriate measures of skill relative to observations, and iii) how measures of skill may relate to the reliability of the projections. [...]it is recommended that model evaluation should incorporate both the modern instrumental period and key time slices in the past (e.g., Pliocene, last interglacial, last glacial-interglacial transition, and the Holocene).