Evaluating area-specific adaptation strategies for rainfed maize under future climates of India

• Published in: The Science of the total environment Vol. 836; p. 155511
• Main Authors: Subba Rao, A.V.M., Sarath Chandran, M.A., Bal, Santanu Kumar, Pramod, V.P., Sandeep, V.M., Manikandan, N., Raju, B.M.K., Prabhakar, M., Islam, Adlul, Naresh Kumar, S., Singh, V.K.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Netherlands Elsevier B.V 25.08.2022
• Subjects: Adaptation strategies; climate; Climate change; corn; DSSAT; environment; fertilizer rates; GCMs; India; irrigation; Maize; meteorological data; Yield; India; Climate change; DSSAT; Maize; Yield; GCMs; Adaptation strategies
• ISSN: 0048-9697; 1879-1026; 1879-1026
• DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.155511

This study investigates the spatio-temporal changes in maize yield under projected climate and identified the potential adaptation measures to reduce the negative impact. Future climate data derived from 30 general circulation models were used to assess the impact of future climate on yield in 16 major maize growing districts of India. DSSAT model was used to simulate maize yield and evaluate adaptation strategies during mid (2040-69) and end-centuries (2070-99) under RCP 4.5 and 8.5. Genetic coefficients were calibrated and validated for each of the study locations. The projected climate indicated a substantial increase in mean seasonal maximum (0.9–6.0 °C) and minimum temperatures (1.1–6.1 °C) in the future (the range denotes the lowest and highest change during all the four future scenarios). Without adaptation strategies, climate change could reduce maize yield in the range of 16% (Tumkur) to 46% (Jalandhar) under RCP 4.5 and 21% (Tumkur) to 80% (Jalandhar) under RCP 8.5. Only at Dharwad, the yield could remain slightly higher or the same compared to the baseline period (1980–2009). Six adaptation strategies were evaluated (delayed sowing, increase in fertilizer dose, supplemental irrigation, and their combinations) in which a combination of those was found to be effective in majority of the districts. District-specific adaptation strategies were identified for each of the future scenarios. The findings of this study will enable in planning adaptation strategies to minimize the negative impact of projected climate in major maize growing districts of India. [Display omitted] •Optimized district-specific genetic coefficients (CERES-Maize model) in India•Generated future climates using hybrid delta ensemble method from bias corrected and spatially disaggregated 30 GCMs’ data•Without adaptation, rainfed maize yield is likely to decrease by 16 - 80% in selected districts under future climate scenarios•Identified district-specific adaptation strategies to reduce the negative impact of projected climate on maize yield