Positive association of oscillometrically estimated baseline arterial stiffness with incident diabetes and prediabetes: A large population-based cohort study

• Published in: Primary care diabetes Vol. 19; no. 1; pp. 66 - 73
• Main Authors: Beros, Angela L., Sluyter, John D., Hughes, Alun D., Hametner, Bernhard, Wassertheurer, Siegfried, Scragg, Robert
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: England Elsevier Ltd 01.02.2025
• Subjects: Aged; Arterial stiffness; Carotid-Femoral Pulse Wave Velocity; Cohort study; Diabetes; Diabetes Mellitus - diagnosis; Diabetes Mellitus - epidemiology; Diabetes Mellitus - physiopathology; Female; Humans; Incidence; Male; Middle Aged; Prediabetes; Prediabetic State - diagnosis; Prediabetic State - epidemiology; Prediabetic State - physiopathology; Predictive Value of Tests; Prognosis; Proportional Hazards Models; Pulse Wave Analysis; Pulse wave velocity; Risk Assessment; Risk Factors; Time Factors; Vascular Stiffness; aPP; PP; baPWV; aPWV; ICD-10; Arterial stiffness; HR; Prediabetes; BP; cfPWV; PWV; TC; CVD; HDL-C; NZDep 2013; Cohort study; Pulse wave velocity; ecfPWV; Diabetes; sHR; ViDA Study; MAP; BMI
• ISSN: 1751-9918; 1878-0210; 1878-0210
• DOI: 10.1016/j.pcd.2024.12.006

This large population-based study aimed to investigate whether arterial stiffness, assessed oscillometrically, was associated with incident diabetes/prediabetes. The study sample comprised 4240 participants from the Vitamin D Assessment (ViDA) Study (mean±SD age = 66 ± 8). Arterial stiffness was assessed from 5 April 2011–6 November 2012 by way of aortic PWV (aPWV) and estimated carotid-femoral PWV (ecfPWV). Incident diabetes/prediabetes was determined by linkage to dispensed prescription and national hospital discharge registers. Cox proportional hazards regression was used to assess the risk of diabetes/prediabetes in relation to chosen arterial stiffness measures both overall and over quartiles. During a mean±SD follow-up of 10.5 ± 0.4 years, 470 participants developed diabetes/prediabetes. Following adjustment for potential confounders, aPWV (hazard ratio (HR) per SD increase, 1.40, 95 % CI, 1.19–1.64) was associated with the incidence of diabetes. The risk of incident diabetes was, compared to the first quartile, higher in the fourth quartile of aPWV (HR, 1.98, 95 %CI, 1.26–3.11)(Ptrend=0.01). Arterial stiffness, as measured by aPWV may be a useful predictor of incident diabetes that can be utilized in clinical practice. •Arterial stiffness can be assessed by way of pulse wave velocity (PWV).•PWV can now be measured cheaply, quickly and without expert training.•Baseline PWV was measured in a large population cohort followed for 10.5 years.•Baseline PWV was associated with the incidence of diabetes/prediabetes.•The higher baseline PWV, the greater the risk of future diabetes/prediabetes.