Real-time flood stage forecasting by Variable Parameter Muskingum Stage hydrograph routing method

• Published in: Hydrology Research Vol. 42; no. 2-3; pp. 150 - 161
• Main Authors: Perumal, Muthiah, Moramarco, Tommaso, Barbetta, Silvia, Melone, Florisa, Sahoo, Bhabagrahi
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: London International Water Association 01.04.2011; IWA Publishing
• Subjects: Autoregressive models; Autoregressive processes; Comparative analysis; Comparative studies; Data processing; Earth sciences; Earth, ocean, space; Engineering and environment geology. Geothermics; Exact sciences and technology; Flood forecasting; Flood stages; Flood waves; Floods; Gaging; Hydrographs; Hydrology; Hydrology. Hydrogeology; Lead time; Methods; Natural hazards: prediction, damages, etc; Real time; River basins; River discharge; Rivers; Warning systems; Southern Europe; Italy; Tiber Valley; Europe; Tiber River; rivers; floods; models; real-time forecasting variable parameter; Muskingum stage; hydrograph; flood; channels; travel time; compound channel; errors; hydrographs; gauging
• ISSN: 0029-1277; 1998-9563; 2224-7955; 2224-7955
• DOI: 10.2166/nh.2011.063

The application of a Variable Parameter Muskingum Stage (VPMS) hydrograph routing method for real-time flood forecasting at a river gauging site is demonstrated in this study. The forecast error is estimated using a two-parameter linear autoregressive model with its parameters updated at every routing time interval of 30 minutes at which the stage observations are made. This hydrometric data-based forecast model is applied for forecasting floods at the downstream end of a 15 km reach of the Tiber River in Central Italy. The study reveals that the proposed approach is able to provide reliable forecast of flood estimate for different lead times subject to a maximum lead time nearly equal to the travel time of the flood wave within the selected routing reach. Moreover, a comparative study of the VPMS method for real-time forecasting and the simple stage forecasting model (STAFOM), currently in operation as the Flood Forecasting and Warning System in the Upper-Middle Tiber River basin of Italy, demonstrates the capability of the VPMS model for its field use.