Projections of Annual Mean Air Temperature and Precipitation over the Globe and in China During the 21st Century by the BCC Climate System Model BCC_CSM1.0

• Published in: Acta meteorologica Sinica Vol. 26; no. 3; pp. 362 - 375
• Main Author: 张莉 吴统文 辛晓歌 董敏
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Heidelberg The Chinese Meteorological Society 01.06.2012; Division of Climate System Modeling & Laboratory for Climate Studies, National Climate Center,China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081
• Subjects: Atmospheric Protection/Air Quality Control/Air Pollution; Atmospheric Sciences; BCC; Earth and Environmental Science; Earth Sciences; Geophysics and Environmental Physics; Meteorology; 中国; 年平均气温; 气候模型; 气候系统模式; 温室气体排放; 降水; 预测能力; China, People's Rep., Beijing; precipitation; BCC_CSM1.0; air temperature; projection
• ISSN: 0894-0525; 2191-4788
• DOI: 10.1007/s13351-012-0308-8

Evaluating the projection capability of climate models is an important task in climate model development and climate change studies. The projection capability of the Beijing Climate Center （BCC） Climate System Model BCC CSM1.0 is analyzed in this study. We focus on evaluating the projected annual mean air temperature and precipitation during the 21st century under three emission scenarios （Special Report on Emission Scenarios （SRES） B1, A1B, and A2） of the BCC_CSM1.0 model, along with comparisons with 22 CMIP3 （Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3） climate models. Air temperature averaged both globally and within China is projected to increase continuously throughout the 21st century, while precipitation increases intermittently under each of the three emission scenarios, with some specific temporal and spatial characteristics. The changes in globally-averaged and China-averaged air temperature and precipitation simulated by the BCC_CSM1.0 model are within the range of CMIP3 model results. On average, the changes of precipitation and temperature are more pronounced over China than over the globe, which is also in agreement with the CMIP3 models. The projection capability of the BCC_CSM1.0 model is comparable to that of other climate system models. Furthermore, the results reveal that the climate change response to greenhouse gas emissions is stronger over China than in the global mean, which implies that China may be particularly sensitive to climate change in the 21st century.