Consensus Modeling with Asymmetric Cost Based on Data-Driven Robust Optimization

• Published in: Group decision and negotiation Vol. 30; no. 6; pp. 1395 - 1432
• Main Authors: Qu, Shaojian, Han, Yefan, Wu, Zhong, Raza, Hassan
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Netherlands 01.12.2021; Springer Nature B.V
• Subjects: Biological and Physical Anthropology; Business and Management; Conservatism; Decision makers; Group decision making; Optimization; Risk preferences; Risk reduction; Robustness; Sensitivity analysis; Uncertainty; Group decision making; Robust optimization; Minimum cost consensus; Asymmetric cost; Data-driven optimization
• ISSN: 0926-2644; 1572-9907
• DOI: 10.1007/s10726-020-09707-w

The robust optimization method has progressively become a research hot spot as a valuable means for dealing with parameter uncertainty in optimization problems. Based on the asymmetric cost consensus model, this paper considers the uncertainties of the experts’ unit adjustment costs under the background of group decision making. At the same time, four uncertain level parameters are introduced. For three types of minimum cost consensus models with direction restrictions, including MCCM-DC, ε -MCCM-DC and threshold-based (TB)-MCCM-DC, the robust cost consensus models corresponding to four types of uncertainty sets (Box set, Ellipsoid set, Polyhedron set and Interval-Polyhedron set) are established. Sensitivity analysis is carried out under different parameter conditions to determine the robustness of the solutions obtained from robust optimization models. The robust optimization models are then compared to the minimum cost models for consensus. The example results show that the Interval-Polyhedron set’s robust models have the smallest total costs and strongest robustness. Decision makers can choose the combination of uncertainty sets and uncertain levels according to their risk preferences to minimize the total cost. Finally, in order to reduce the conservatism of the classical robust optimization method, the pricing information of the new product MACUBE 550 is used to build a data-driven robust optimization model. Ellipsoid uncertainty set is proved to better trade-off the average performance and robust performance through different measurement indicators. Therefore, the uncertainty set can be selected according to the needs of the group.