A Novel Bézier LSTM Model: A Case Study in Corn Analysis

• Published in: Mathematics (Basel) Vol. 12; no. 15; p. 2308
• Main Authors: Zhao, Qingliang, Chen, Junji, Feng, Xiaobin, Wang, Yiduo
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.08.2024
• Subjects: Accuracy; Agriculture; Algorithms; ARIMA; Autoregressive models; Back propagation; Bézier curve; Case studies; Commodity futures; Corn; Curve fitting; Curves; Data smoothing; Design; Effectiveness; Farm produce; Forecasting; Forecasts and trends; Industrial development; Localization; LSTM; Methods; Neural networks; Prediction models; Predictions; price forecast; Prices; Production planning; Regression models; Statistical analysis; Support vector machines; SVR; Time series; Trends; United Kingdom; China
• ISSN: 2227-7390; 2227-7390
• DOI: 10.3390/math12152308

Accurate prediction of agricultural product prices is instrumental in providing rational guidance for agricultural production planning and the development of the agricultural industry. By constructing an end-to-end agricultural product price prediction model, incorporating a segmented Bézier curve fitting algorithm and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network, this study selects corn futures prices listed on the Dalian Commodity Exchange as the research subject to predict and validate their price trends. Firstly, corn futures prices are fitted using segmented Bézier curves. Subsequently, the fitted price sequence is employed as a feature and input into an LSTM network for training to obtain a price prediction model. Finally, the prediction results of the Bézier curve-based LSTM model are compared and analyzed with traditional LSTM, ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model), VMD-LSTM, and SVR (Support Vector Regression) models. The research findings indicate that the proposed Bézier curve-based LSTM model demonstrates significant predictive advantages in corn futures price prediction. Through comparison with traditional models, the effectiveness of this model is affirmed. Consequently, the Bézier curve-based LSTM model proposed in this paper can serve as a crucial reference for agricultural product price prediction, providing effective guidance for agricultural production planning and industry development.