Modeling the President's Security Agenda

• Published in: Congress & the presidency Vol. 26; no. 2; pp. 171 - 191
• Main Author: Brenner, Carl N.
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Washington Taylor & Francis Group 1999; Taylor & Francis Ltd
• Subjects: Decision making; Foreign policy; National security; Policy making; Presidents; Security
• ISSN: 0734-3469; 1944-1053
• DOI: 10.1080/07343469909507784

Why does the president attend to some security issues but not others? This study examines presidential attention to foreign conflicts from October 1986 to November 1996 by devising a measure of attention based on the president's public speeches. Hypotheses on the determinants of the security agenda are drawn from the literature on agenda setting and foreign policy behavior. Results show the president's attention is limited and inertia brought by previous attention to an issue makes it less likely the president will address other issues. New issues are also less likely to receive attention when the president is running for re-election and, perhaps, when he has extensive foreign policy experience. The major forces for change are significant events abroad and extensive news coverage of a conflict. Of lesser significance is the extent of trade with parties to the conflict. No support is found for hypotheses relating attention to domestic economic circumstances.