Modelling land use/cover change to assess future urban sprawl in Romania

• Published in: Geocarto international Vol. 36; no. 7; pp. 721 - 739
• Main Authors: Grigorescu, Ines, Kucsicsa, Gheorghe, Popovici, Elena-Ana, Mitrică, Bianca, Mocanu, Irena, Dumitraşcu, Monica
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Taylor & Francis 21.04.2021
• Subjects: CLC database; CLUE-S model; decision making; development region; environmental protection; land cover; land use; prediction; Romania; socioeconomics; Urban sprawl; urbanization; Romania
• ISSN: 1010-6049; 1752-0762; 1752-0762
• DOI: 10.1080/10106049.2019.1624981

The current paper aims at assessing future urban sprawl in Romania based on predicted land use/cover change (2007-2050) simulated using CLUE-S model (the Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) and CORINE Land Cover (CLC) database. Given the regional particularities of land use/cover change, the CLUE-S model was applied for each Development Region of Romania (NUTS 2 level). The authors analysed various biophysical and socio-economic explanatory variables associated with the current patterns of urban expansion and assessed future urban sprawl based on historical built-up expansion. The model shows increasing built-up areas mainly in relation to the decreasing in agricultural lands, especially inside and outside the cities limits, with significant differences at the regional level. The results provide support for the decision-makers and local communities in promoting less consumption of land resource and the protection of the environment.