Mission abort and rescue for multistate systems operating under the Poisson process of shocks

• Published in: Reliability engineering & system safety Vol. 202; p. 107027
• Main Authors: Levitin, Gregory, Finkelstein, Maxim, Dai, Yuanshun
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Barking Elsevier Ltd 01.10.2020; Elsevier BV
• Subjects: Applied probability; Mission abort; Mission success probability; Multi-state system; Non-homogeneous Poisson process of shocks; Optimization; Poisson density functions; Reliability engineering; Statistical analysis; Survival; System survival probability; System survival probability; Multi-state system; Applied probability; Mission success probability; Mission abort; Non-homogeneous Poisson process of shocks
• ISSN: 0951-8320; 1879-0836
• DOI: 10.1016/j.ress.2020.107027

•Mission abort and rescue for multistate systems exposed to shocks are analyzed.•Random shocks constitute a non-homogeneous Poisson process.•With each shock, the state of a system stochastically deteriorates.•The number of experienced shocks is a decision parameter for mission aborting.•Optimal mission abort strategy is considered. The paper discusses mission abort and rescue strategies for multistate systems with different levels of performance. A system operates in a random environment modeled by the non-homogeneous Poisson process of shocks. With each shock, the state of a system stochastically deteriorates gradually moving to the state of a total failure. To prevent this event and to increase a system survival probability, a mission can be aborted and a rescue procedure can be activated. The number of experienced shocks is a decision parameter for the corresponding optimization problem that aims at maximizing the mission success probability subject to providing the desired level of survival probability. A detailed numerical example illustrates our findings.