Prediction of China’s Carbon Price Based on the Genetic Algorithm–Particle Swarm Optimization–Back Propagation Neural Network Model

• Published in: Sustainability Vol. 17; no. 1; p. 59
• Main Authors: Wang, Jining, Zhao, Xuewei, Wang, Lei
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Basel MDPI AG 01.01.2025
• Subjects: Accuracy; Artificial intelligence; Carbon; Climate change; Construction industry; Emissions trading; Energy consumption; Genetic algorithms; Low income groups; Mathematical optimization; Mutation; Neural networks; Optimization techniques; Prices and rates; Process controls; Trends; China
• ISSN: 2071-1050; 2071-1050
• DOI: 10.3390/su17010059

Traditional BP neural networks frequently encounter local optima during carbon price forecasts. This study adopts a hybrid approach, combining a genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization (GA-PSO) to improve the BP neural network, resulting in the creation of a GA-PSO-BP neural network model. Seven critical factors were identified affecting carbon prices, and we utilized data on carbon emission trading prices from China for the analysis. Compared to traditional BP neural network models, including GA-BP neural network models optimized solely with genetic algorithms and PSO-BP neural network models enhanced through particle swarm optimization, the findings reveal that the GA-PSO-BP neural network model demonstrates superior performance in terms of precision and robustness. Furthermore, it demonstrates advancements across various error evaluation metrics, thus delivering more accurate forecasts. Offering precise carbon price predictions, the enhanced GA-PSO-BP neural network model proves to be a valuable tool for analyzing the market and making decisions in the carbon pricing sector.