The Change of North China Climate in Transient Simulations Using the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 Scenarios with a Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model

• Published in: Advances in atmospheric sciences Vol. 20; no. 5; pp. 755 - 766
• Main Author: 布和朝鲁 UlrichCUBASCH~" 林永辉 纪立人
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Dordrecht Springer Nature B.V 01.09.2003; LASG, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029%Meteorologisches Institut der Freien Universitaet Berlin, Care-Heinrich-Becker Weg 6-10, 12165%Institute of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing 100081
• Subjects: Atmosphere; Atmospheric circulation; Climate; Climate change; East Asian monsoon; Environmental risk; Flood risk; Gases; General circulation models; Global warming; Greenhouse effect; Greenhouse gases; Interannual variability; Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; IPCC-SRES-A2; IPCC-SRES-B2; Meteorology; Monsoon circulation; Ocean-atmosphere interaction; Oceanic general circulation model; Oceans; Precipitation; Rainfall; Seasonal variations; Seasonality; Sulfur; Sulphur; Summer; Summer circulation; Summer precipitation; Winter circulation; 北部地区; 大气-海洋循环模型; 季节性; 气候变化; China; China, People's Rep., North; North China; Climate change; IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios; Seasonality
• ISSN: 0256-1530; 1861-9533
• DOI: 10.1007/BF02915400

This paper applies the newest emission scenarios of the sulfur and greenhouse gases, namely IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios, to investigate the change of the North China climate with an atmosphere-ocean coupled general circulation model. In the last three decades of the 21st century, the global warming enlarges the land-sea thermal contrast, and hence, causes the East Asian summer (winter) monsoon circulation to be strengthened (weakened). The rainfall seasonality strengthens and the summer precipitation increases significantly in North China. It is suggested that the East Asian rainy area would expand northward to North China in the last three decades of the 21st century. In addition, the North China precipitation would increase significantly in September. In July, August, and September, the interannual variability of the precipitation enlarges evidentlv over North China. implying a risk of flooding in the future.