Dynamical analysis of a monkeypox spread model with human to human saturated incidence rate and environmental transmission

• Published in: Mathematics in applied sciences and engineering Vol. 6; no. 2; pp. 157 - 173
• Main Authors: Possumah, Brazil Vargas Junior, Kusumawinahyu, Wuryansari Muharini, Trisilowati
• Format: Journal Article
• Language: English
• Published: Western Libraries 01.06.2025
• Subjects: Monkeypox model, saturated incidence rate, contaminated environment, local stability, forward bifurcation
• ISSN: 2563-1926; 2563-1926
• DOI: 10.5206/mase/22269

In this paper, we study the behavior of monkeypox spread by constructing a compartmental model describing virus transmission between humans, animals, and the environment. The model incorporates vaccination on susceptible humans, quarantine on exposed humans, and hospitalization on infected humans. A saturated incidence rate is applied to obtain a more realistic model. The model's basic reproduction number ($R_0$) is obtained by applying the next generation matrix method. The analysis shows that the local stability of the equilibrium points depends on the value of $R_0$, and it is also shown that the model undergoes forward bifurcation. Furthermore, sensitivity analysis and numerical simulations were conducted to illustrate the analytical results.